July 6, 11 PM Weather Forecast Update

Heat wave to continue through rest of the week with another one next week (that is potentially more intense).

Posted: Jul 6, 2020 9:38 PM
Updated: Jul 6, 2020 11:25 PM

For the viewing area as a whole, the mean temperature & average daily high was the warmest since June 2012.

Also, compare the April-June rainfall anomalies in 2020:

Compare that with the rainfall anomalies for April-June of last year (much drier this April-June period compared to last year's April-June period):

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Highs today reached 88-96.

I had 95.7 at our WLFI ob site, making it the hottest day of 2020 so far.  The Purdue Airport reached 95.

Heat indices peaked at 91-106.

I had peak heat index of 100 at our WLFI ob site.

A few spotty pulse storms popped.

Rainfall was extremely variable.

Observer Tim Garbison near Veedersburg picked up 2.05" of rainfall in a torrential storm today.  He also said the strong downburst-type winds blew over horse shelters.

Areas just south of downtown Lafayette saw up to 1.50" of rainfall today!  Pocket between Mulberry & Fickle saw up to 1.70".

Only 0.06" measured here at the station.  Ryan Harber about 1.5 miles away had 0.10".  Not a drop at the home place!

Today is the third day in a row with a high of 95 officially at Greater Lafayette.  This makes the 6th consecutive day at or above 90 degrees.

After patchy fog tonight (especially in areas that saw rain today) & lows 68-73, highs of 91-97 is likely Tuesday (with heat indices 94-106).

Scattered storms will pop.

Given the boiling instability & noted downdraft CAPE, an isolated microburst or two is possible.

These are pulse storms that blow up quickly, drop their heavy rain, wind with thunder & lightning, then collapse, but new storms pop nearby on their outflow boundaries.  Also, the convergence of outflow boundaries support sudden, very rapid develop of storms like popcorn popping.

I went for 40% average coverage of storms in the afternoon to early evening.

Winds look light & variable, so it will be stifling outside of storms.

After patchy fog (especially in areas that received rain Tuesday) & 69-74 Tuesday night, only a few isolated storms will pop Wednesday.

I went for 20% coverage of storms in the afternoon to early evening.

Winds look light & variable, so it will be stifling outside with highs 92-98 with heat indices 98-108.

It is the same set-up on Thursday, as well.

Note MCS & then MCV pivoting through Iowa & Illinois.

This will likely be trigger for complex of storms in our area with some severe risk by Friday.

Exact timing is unclear, however, at the moment.

I went for passage Friday PM (subject to change) with widespread storm risk with highs in the 90s & heat indices in the 100 to 107 range.

Actual surface cold front should pass Saturday with some scattered storms & highs 89-94 with heat indices 95-105.

Sunday looks a bit cooler & less humid with highs 86-90 & lows 62-67.

Intense heat wave may overspread the region next week.

Temperatures Wednesday at 2 p.m. are forecast at 90-95 over the area with highs 92-97.

The extent of heat over the Lower 48 next week will be impressive.

The highest temperatures in the Southern Plains since the 2010-12 period are possible mid-next week with 110-115.

Although a minor cold front comes through with some storms to quell the heat a bit around July 19, there are signs of it re-building with potential third heat wave July 22-27.  Extreme heat will dominate the Plains from the Dkaotas to Texas. 

Also, intense heat will occur in parts of Ontario with temperatures surging to the mid 90s.

The extent of the heat over the Lower 48 in late July is impressive.

There are signs of a brief respite from the heat (80s) as we begin August. 

However, 90s may re-build as we approach mid-August.

We still look to have a bit below normal rainfall, however.  The heavier rainfall should occur Missouri, Kansas to Oklahoma, which will be welcome there after two stretches of +100.

There is no sign of a strong signal for widespread heavier rainfall up to mid-August, unless we see a tropical system or storms sit over the viewing area & just dump & dump rainfall.

Trend for mid-August is slightly-below normal rainfall overall for the viewing area.

Temperatures average above normal after that brief respite from the heat, right to mid-August.

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