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July 16, 11 PM Weather Forecast Update

Crunching new numbers, here is the latest on the temperatures & storm risk now to the end of July.

Posted: Jul 16, 2020 9:46 PM
Updated: Jul 16, 2020 11:31 PM

June was the hottest since 2012 & so far July is the hottest since 2012.  July is also the driest since 2012 officially in Greater Lafayette.

Parts of Fulton, Cass & Miami counties are now considered to be in an official Moderate Drought.  Other areas are Abnormally Dry.  Benton, Newton, Jasper, western White & southern Fountain to Montgomery counties are actually moist to wet, however. 

More rainfall is needed to overcome deficits since late May in the yellow & tan areas.  Of course, there are obviously some pockets in that yellow that are not in a deficit, but enough are to paint it in D0.

Since June 1, I have measured 3.58" of rainfall at our WLFI ob site.  Normal for June 1-July 15 is 6.09".  This is a deficit of -2.51".

Since May 1, I have measured a total of 6.46".  Normal for May 1-July 15 is 10.28".  This is a deficit of -3.82". 

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Summer 2020 so far is the

Highs today reached 80-87 with heat indices 82-94.

WLFI ob site high was 85 with peak heat index of 90.

Purdue Airport reached 84 with a peak heat index of 88.

The complexes (MCSs) of severe storms in the "Ring of Fire" will stay northwest, north & northeast of the area Saturday to Sunday morning it appears.

Some data has suggested that a bowing MCS may impact the area Sunday morning as the tail end of it does a bit of a right turn.

Data tonight continues to show lack of any of these tracking into our area.  Only a couple isolated storms may pop Saturday, breaking through the cap.

92-97 & 93-100 are possible Saturday & Sunday with breezy conditions & heat indices from near 100 to as high as around 110.

Saturday:

Saturday night-Sunday morning:

We will see if outflow boundary can develop enough convergence to force a few storms through the cap Sunday or complex of storms does a turn in to the area Sunday night.

We will watch.

Multiple rounds of storms are likely in the area Tuesday through Thursday with some severe risk at times.

Highs will run upper 80s to 90s with muggy weather resulting in 90s & 100s heat indices at times.

Locally-heavy rainfall is possible in this "Ring of Fire" pattern.

Only thing preventing more robust severe risk here is that the stronger winds aloft will be situated more northwest & north of our area rather than right over our area.

Brief respite of heat for next Friday turns to 90s (& high humidity) again a week from this weekend (July 25-26).  We get back into periods of storms, as well as we get back to "Ring of Fire" pattern.

So, this is a nice turn toward some welcome rainfall as the "Ring of Fire" shows up well in the CFSV2 model.  Green is above normal rainfall, yellow is below normal rainfall.  White is normal rainfall for the 30-year climatological average.

Temperatures are running above normal overall for the rest of July:

West Lafayette
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Rensselaer
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Fowler
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Crawfordsville
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Frankfort
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Delphi
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Monticello
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Logansport
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Chilly and cloudy Tuesday
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Indiana Coronavirus Cases

Data is updated nightly.

Confirmed Cases: 162607

Reported Deaths: 4130
CountyConfirmedDeaths
Marion25871792
Lake14222358
St. Joseph9532166
Elkhart9156137
Allen8552230
Hamilton6335114
Vanderburgh609062
Tippecanoe391815
Porter341650
Hendricks3367134
Monroe333238
Johnson3239130
Delaware307675
Clark303163
Vigo272440
Madison248096
LaPorte236161
Cass228523
Warrick201565
Kosciusko198427
Floyd185868
Howard168466
Bartholomew146958
Dubois145526
Marshall145126
Wayne137931
Henry131330
Grant131039
Boone128050
Hancock123144
Noble121935
Jackson118517
Dearborn101728
Morgan98940
Lawrence94737
Gibson92812
Daviess91334
Clinton90316
Shelby89431
LaGrange82815
Knox81310
Harrison79924
Posey7667
Putnam76616
DeKalb75811
Fayette73918
Jasper6655
Miami6615
Steuben6578
Montgomery62022
White61016
Greene57338
Scott54513
Decatur52539
Adams5237
Whitley4796
Ripley4748
Clay4587
Sullivan45514
Wells44911
Wabash4389
Starke4378
Huntington4365
Orange42125
Spencer4126
Washington3863
Franklin38125
Randolph38110
Jennings37913
Fulton3764
Perry36114
Jefferson3525
Pike34318
Carroll33813
Jay3316
Fountain3193
Tipton28223
Vermillion2681
Parke2504
Newton23611
Blackford2344
Rush2304
Owen2111
Martin2040
Pulaski1753
Crawford1631
Brown1463
Ohio1337
Union1140
Benton1100
Switzerland970
Warren891
Unassigned0236

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