July 4, 4:30 PM Weather Forecast Update

Very warm to hot, humid weather to continues with some storms.

Posted: Jul 4, 2019 4:10 PM
Updated: Jul 4, 2019 4:52 PM

Storms are flaring up surrounding the viewing area as of 4 p.m.

Temperatures are as high as 92 with heat indices as high as 99.

Storms in Illinois associated with weak, remnant MCV & outflow boundaries are on the move northeastward.  A couple isolated cells are trying to pop along I-57 in eastern Illinois, as well.

A couple isolated storms are possible 5-8 p.m.  Some scattered showers & storms are possible in the 8 p.m. to 3 a.m. time frame.

An isolated severe storm is possible (wind).  Coverage will peak at 50%.

Scattered storms are likely tomorrow late afternoon through evening & even into tomorrow night (before diminishing by 4 a.m.)

There is no upper support for the storms, but the heating, high CAPE & remnant MCV will keep some storm going after sunset.

An isolated severe storm is possible (wind).

Some scattered storms are possible Saturday with a couple on Sunday, mainly in the south.

Monday looks dry with 80s with slightly less humid conditions.

Tuesday looks dry until late evening to the night-time hours.

Scattered storms are possible Wednesday-Thursday.

Some severe weather is possible Thursday late as cold front & upper trough swing through.

Other than the brief cool-down in mid-July with brief troughiness, July looks hot & humid with another round of intense heat & humidity possible late month.

90s are possible with heat indices in the 100s. As said since early June, we need to watch this particular upper ridge. It could strengthen considerably & bring a 4- to 5-day duration of substantial to significant heat.

Low solar periods (lack of sunspots) tend to create blocking & extremes of weather (record cool & record hot areas for long periods of time............or long periods of heavy rainfall, drought...........or severe weather).

One way a block may manifest here (instead of block with rainfall every 1-3 days) may end up being a brief, but intense hot upper ridge.

It may build especially over the brown, sprayed & unplanted fields of the far eastern Corn Belt. The heat has been more intense there recently anyway (95-98 in eastern Indiana to Ohio recently). This is due to the different albedo of green, planted fields, vs. tens of thousands of acres of sprayed, brown, bare ones. They heat up more easily & even have a bit lower humidity.

Positive feedbacks from the surface & the stratosphere may help to anchor intense heat for days.  We shall see.

A round of severe storms at the very end of July will completely change the pattern & lead to an extended period of more comfortable weather with below normal temperatures dominating the first half of August (along with above normal rainfall).

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