SEVERE WX : Winter Weather Advisory View Alerts

July 30, 12:30 PM Weather Forecast Update

Areas of rainfall & a cool-down....

Posted: Jul 30, 2020 11:55 AM
Updated: Jul 30, 2020 1:11 PM

Flooding rains & severe weather will occur southwest, south & southeast of our area today through tonight & into tomorrow.

New Flood Watches just came out for the Louisville, Kentucky NWS forecast area, so now it is solid Flood Watches from Missouri to Kentucky & southwestern Ohio & the watch in southeastern Nebraska to Kansas.

However, in the West, the high wildfire danger & near to record heat is dominating from California to British Columbia & southern Alberta.

Rainfall over the area now will tend to decrease later today & end this evening.

Isolated locally-heavy rainfall is possible today.

It is mainly just a nice summer rain & a lack of storms here.  Isolated rumble or two of thunder is possible.

Temperatures will stay in the 70s to near 80 over the central & southern part of the area, but the far north may see a corridor of temperatures well into the 80s with less in the way of rainfall.

It will be muggy area-wide.  As I type this, I see our WLFI weather station observation showing 75 with a dew point of 74 as the rain falls after a high of 77 & a low of 72.  That is quite sticky!  Winds are east-southeast at 6 mph with 0.14" in the gauge.

This will occur as combination of a couple lows & the remnant circulation (low) of once Hurricane Hanna pivots through areas south & southwest of our area.

With lots of clouds mixed with sun, a few isolated to spotty showers are possible Friday (25%), but the heavy rainfall & severe weather risk will occur well south & southeast of our area.

After morning lows in the 60s, highs should reach 80-85 with rather humid conditions, but a northeast wind at 10-15 mph.

On Saturday, we look to have a good deal of cloudiness with sunshine, but the heavy rainfall & severe weather will occur south, southeast & east of our area.  A few isolated to spotty showers (25%) are possible. 

Highs of 80-85 are likely with still a bit humid conditions with a northeast wind at 5-13 mph.

Center of the low or really the old Hanna circulation will begin to turn more to the east-northeast than southeast due to likely Tropical Storm or Hurricane Isaias rides up from the Florida area toward the Carolinas.

Better potential for some showers & storms will occur Sunday (45%) with highs in the 80s & high humidity as that upper trough & surface cold front seen from Wisconsin to Kansas pivots in.

Lows will be in the 60s Friday, Saturday & Sunday nights.

Upper trough will keep a few showers & storms in the forecast for Monday as our current large low & the remnants of Isaias pivot through the Northeast.

Any showers Tuesday look isolated.

Highs will run 77-83 & the humidity will begin to see a decline.

Overnight lows by Tuesday night will drop to the 50s with areas of fog.

Wednesday looks great with mostly sunny skeis, low humidity, little wind & highs 78-83 after that morning fog.

Wednesday night-Thursday morning features mostly clear skies, some patchy fog (not as much as Wednesday morning it appears currently)& lows in the 50s to 60.

Heat expands east & northward later next week with corridor of severe weather risk from the Eastern Rockies to the Central & Northern Plains Thursday to Saturday (August 6-8).

We turn very warm to hot & muggy.

There is the risk of storms August 10 (Sunday) & August 12 (Tuesday) with some MARGINAL to SLIGHT RISK parameters showing up.

These look like old MCVs from Iowa, Kansas & Missouri complexes of severe storms (MCSs).

We look to see either the MCSs come through our area &/or the remnant MCVs fire new storms in our area.

We then eventually see a main sufrace cold front & upper trough swing through around August 13 to kick off more storms, followed by a substantial cool-down.

We will ned to monitor August 10, 12 & 13 for some severe weather risk.

Current analysis suggests highs 75-80 with lows 51-56, however, behind strong cold front for a couple days in mid-August.

However, lots of heat return for latter August to early September with two main round of heat & possible one &/or two heat waves with 90s.

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