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July 30, 11 PM Weather Forecast Update

The latest analysis of the trends now to winter-early spring 2021-22.

Posted: Jul 30, 2021 9:06 PM
Updated: Jul 30, 2021 11:06 PM

Highs today were much cooler & less humid compared to yesterday. 

After 7 consecutive of heat & humidity, today was a welcome change with dew points in the 50s to lower 60s & highs 75-82.

Very thick wildfire smoke late last night & this morning exited this afternoon, followed by increasing & thickening clouds this evening.

With mostly cloudy to cloudy skies, a few showers are possible overnight through Saturday morning.

Sunshine will increase in the afternoon-evening.

Weather looks fine for the Taste of Tippecanoe.

Highs Saturday will run 76-83 with around 81 at Greater Lafayette.  It will be a bit humid with dew points 62-66 with an east wind becoming south to southwest at 10 mph.

Temperatures will fall through the 70s in the evening to 63-67 by 11 p.m.

Some increasing clouds Saturday night will bring a few spotty showers, then a few spotty showers/t'showers are possible Sunday with sun/clouds with highs 75-81 with northwest wind becoming north 10-15 mph.

Skies should completely clear north to south late afternoon-evening.

Next week features nice weather, but thick smoke will be here at times.  Also, some smoke from fires closer to the area (Ontario, Minnesota, Manitoba) will occur over the area, resulting in haze & less than 6 mile visibilities.  Air quality will also go down again, potentially to that "Unhealthy for Sensitive Individuals" range.

At this point, it is overall a pretty dry regime to mid-August.  No doubt, we will have a couple of waves of scattered showers & storms, but nothing screams widespread heavy, persistent storms.

It will turn hotter & more humid & stay that way for a while.

August overall looks warmer than normal & a bit drier than normal.

Dominant pattern is the dominant Summer 2021 horseshoe ridge with lots of heat over the northwest, north & northeast U.S. with cooler temperatures (compared to normal farther south).

However, recently, some really intense heat has been occurring in areas that have been overall cooler than normal this summer in Texas & Oklahoma to Georgia.

It looks quite hot & humid August 6-15 here with lots of 90s & heat indices 90s & 100s. 

I am thinking that there may be a quick, but substantial cool-down from 90s to 70s to 80 with lows in the 50s August 16-19, but we then tend to heat up again.

In this transition, we will likely see some storms.

Tropical-wise, it appears that Florida & the Carolinas would seem to have the best potential of a tropical storm or hurricane.  That is the area that seems has a window for that Sahran dust to clear for a time.

Trend is for heat to frequently dominate August 20-September 3.

August rainfall anomalies:

September looks a bit cooler than normal overall.  Thinking early September will be quite hot, then the rest of the month it will turn frequently cooler. 

Serious wildfire situation will worsen western Canada to Pacific Northwest to California.

Santa Ana, Sundown & Diablo winds in central & southern California (katabatic blowing land to sea) will make for extreme conditions at times.

In the Pacific Northwest other katabatic winds & winds blowing from the East out of the Williamette Valley will make for dangerous fire conditions at times.

We also look a bit drier than normal in September, unless a tropical system can make it in here.  As said, so far, widespread Saharan dust Africa to Texas has put the kabosh on the season.  Also the MJO is having a lack of any impact to push the season along so far.

We will watch for a system in August Florida to the Carolinas, then uptick with time in September with action later for the 2021 season.  We will catch up rapidly in September & October (see below).

September temperature anomalies:

The same pattern that has been dominating summer shows up strongly in October.  This is a problem because October typically turns quite wet in the Pacific Northwest & it looks much drier & hotter than normal.  It also looks very dry & hot from California to the Plains & Great Lakes.  Fire risk will continue to frequently be high, especially in early October.

We look warmer than normal here.

Thoughts are that this hurricane season will be a late one.  As Saharan dust situation goes away & MJO goes to favorable phases for active Atlantic hurricane regime, we will see a radical uptick in tropical activity September that ramps up in October.  Hurricane landfalls are possible less in August & higher in later September & October (the way it looks at the moment).

East Coast is fair game in October for a hurricane or tropical storm to ride up the coast.

The active tropics will make for overall normal to slightly below normal temperatures in the South.

Much of the country looks drier than normal in October, except in the Southeast & along the East Coast with above normal rainfall from tropical activity.

Our field & brush fire risk will go up here as we dry out considerably with above normal temperatures & lack of appreciable rainfall.

October temperature anomalies:

November should be warmer than normal here with below normal rainfall.

It appears that upper ridging with warm, warm weather may set up & dominate in the Southeast with the main storm track Colorado to Ontario.  Above normal temperatures should occur California to Texas to our region to New England & across the Southeast as Bermuda surface high pumps warmth northeastward.

Some early season snowstorms are possible in the eastern Rockies as cooler than normal weather tends to occur from the eastern & Northern Rockies (for a change) to the northern Plains.

This could set up a late-season severe weather event Kansas to Michigan & Ontario (including our area).

Like last year, we may see warm weather linger on well into November with increased brush fire risk here.

Late season tropical storm or hurricane activity is possible in early to mid November from Cuba to Florida & the Bahamas.

Looks like a drier than normal winter to spring 2021-22 in California to Texas.  We may not see much drought relief until Winter 2022-23 as El Nino conditions develop.

Thankfully, above normal precipitation is expected over the Pacific Northwest after an abnormally dry Fall.  Above normal snowfall is likely in the Northern Rockies & over British Columbia.

Here, we look to have above normal precipitation consistently January to April, while the Southeast will turn drier than normal.  Wildfire risk will go up in Florida over the winter with above normal temperatures & below to well-below rainfall.

New England & southern Ontario to Quebec also look wetter than normal.

It will be consistently warmer & drier over the Gulf of Mexico with well-above to above normal sea surface temperature there.

Thinking warmer than normal first half of winter, colder than normal second half with above normal snowfall for the snowfall season.  However, it seems that snowfall will be below normal or nil October-November to the first week of December.

The snow season should run mid-December to March (when first & last accumulating snowfall occurs).

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