Storms have fired in a nearly complete circle around our viewing area late this afternoon. They have been producing isolated severe weather with some wet downbursts.
Most of these are occurring on the outflow boundary of the collapsing band of storms that lined up from northeastern Iowa to northeastern Indiana last night & moved south & gusted-out & weakened over our area.
The thinking was that this boundary & its storms would come back northeastward with time into our area this afternoon-evening.
It has not done so too much yet due to so many storms south of us creating more of a cold pool on the southern edges of the storms, causing them to sink southward or just sit & stall.
Also, a large patch of debri cloudiness or left-over clouds from those decaying storms overnight has been over the viewing area for a good chunk of the afternoon. That has also caused storms to fire largely on the periphery of our area. It has also kept our highs down from 88-95 to 85-91.
Heat indices ran in the upper 90s to as high as 105 yesterday & today, than ran 90 to near 100.
Now, as the high & mid clouds thin & lake breeze front approaches & also finally a surge in an outflow boundary from storms to our south moving northward...............and a weak outflow boundary now setting up in the area from storms near Indy & also near Fort Wayne, cumulus towers are building in three zones.
These three areas still have the potential of a few storms this evening before everything dissipates.
HRRR model shows at least a few storms popping in Warren, Fountain, Tippecanoe & Howard counties.
Boundaries will fire storms in hot, muggy airmass for the Fourth of July.
These will pop after 11 a.m. & will be pulsey in nature with the potential of a couple of isolated wet microbursts.
Old, remnant MCV reaching central Illinois by early afternoon could cause storms there to congeal into a messy line that migrates eastward.
This will occur with our scattered storms around.
As they fade, this MCV will help to keep some storms going through the evening to as late as 1 a.m. (along with risk of an isolated severe storm [wind]).
Even early Friday morning, you can see that remnant MCV pivoting through our far northeastern counties.
That & its outflow boundary should trigger more scattered storms Friday in a hot, muggy airmass.
An isolated wet microburst is possible.
Scattered storms are likely Saturday with a few Sunday.
Monday looks dry & humid.
Multiple waves of storms are possible. Tuesday evening-night to next Saturday. Some more organized severe weather could occur a time or two as the "Ring of Fire" is lined up right over the area with MCVs, outflow boundaries & occasionally & bit better wind fields aloft skimming by the area.
- July 5, 5 PM Weather Forecast Update
- July 7, 9 PM Weather Forecast Update
- July 8, 3 PM Weather Forecast Update
- July 17, 2 PM Weather Forecast Update
- July 18, 2 PM Weather Forecast Update
- July 19, 11 PM Weather Forecast Update
- July 26, 5 PM Weather Forecast Update
- July 1, 11 PM Weather Forecast Update
- July 3, 6 PM Weather Forecast Update
- July 11, 4 PM Weather Forecast Update