July 3, 11 PM Weather Forecast Update

Here is the latest on what is looking like a historic heat wave possible.

Posted: Jul 3, 2020 4:15 PM
Updated: Jul 3, 2020 11:22 PM

Highs today reached 87-93 with heat indices 88-102.  Once again, the driest air was in our northern, eastern & far southern counties.  Area that had all of the heavy rain & has the wet soils had the highest heat indices in Benton, southern Newton & southern Jasper counties.

Today was the 15th day to see at least 90 in 2020 at the Purdue Airport.

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There is a faint, partial lunar eclipse Saturday night in our area in the 11:07 p.m. to 1:52 a.m. time frame of the full "Buck Moon".

It will just be a faint darker hue on just part of the moon as just a glancing blow of Earth's shadow passes over part of the moon.

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We are looking at the potential of a 13-day stretch of 90s (we have already seen 3 consecutive days in the 90s).

Cold front should pass July 14 with storms & then a cool-down to 80s before 90s return around July 18 & extreme heat wave develops in the Plains.  110 is possible Nebraska to Oklahoma.

Some of that heat will move eastward & may bring us a big heat wave in late July.

This 13-day stretch would be the longest since 1999 & a tie for the 8th longest since 1879 (for Greater Lafayette).

It is looking like the longest stretch of 90s on record for much of Michigan & western Ontario to northern Ohio.

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In the meantime, we look hazy & warm tonight with a few patches of fog & lows of 65-71.

Highs tomorrow of 90-96 are likely with heat indices 95-103 with a light to calm wind.  With no air movement & that sun beating down, it will feel especially hot.

There is a lake breeze front from Lake Michigan that will converge with a large lake front from Huron & Erie.  This may be enough to pop an isolated storm or two through a strengthening cap given boiling instability of up to 3000 J/kg of ML CAPE & 4000 J/kg of surface CAPE.

Trigger would be surface convergence associated with lake front(s).

Otherwise, it just looks hazy with some cumulus clouds.

Sunday looks very hot with highs 92-96 with heat indices 96-107.

It looks hazy with some cumulus clouds after morning lows of 68-73.

There will be a Lake Michigan lake breeze boundary moving into our northwestern counties, but it does not have the convergence of Saturday & will be without help from Huron & Erie lake fronts.  So, given cap, I left any mention of isolated storm out of the forecast for Sunday.

Monday-Friday looks very hot & humid next week with dew points rising well into the 70s with wind turning to the south & southwest.  Heat indices of +110 are possible in a few places, but everyone will see them rise to & exceed 100.

A few isolated to spotty pop-ups are possible daily in the heating as cumulus build & break through cap with daily ML CAPE values exceeding 3000 J/kg.  An isolated microburst could occur with any storm given boiling instability as some locations see actual air temperatures approach 100.

Next organized episode of storms is still looking to be Friday night as potential MCS with a squall line passes through.  A few to some severe gusts are possible with it.

Temperatures above to well-above normal dominate the eastern half of the U.S.  The worst will be over eastern Canada to the Midwest, Great Lakes & Plains.

Trend of above normal temperatures with lots of hot upper ridging continues for latter July.

Things change a bit in early August as temperature return to more normal levels.

Looks like more normal temperature trend will continue right to mid-August.

Rainfall is generally below normal for July.

Southeast looks very wet due to tropical activity.

Rainfall is still a bit below normal for early August.

Rainfall looks above normal in the Southeast due to tropical activity.

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