July 29, 10 PM Weather Forecast Update

Some scattered rainfall & turning cooler.

Posted: Jul 29, 2020 4:32 PM
Updated: Jul 29, 2020 10:18 PM

Averaged out, July 2020 is the 16th hottest July since 1879 at West Lafayette.

Only 6 Julys are hotter since 1936.

It is not that we have had really intense heat waves with +100 temperatures, but rather a consistently hot July.

In fact, this entire summer (so far) has been known for consistent heat & humidity with a lack of breaks.

Only one single day in July has failed to reach 85 & that was an 84-degree day on July 16.  Also, only one single night has dropped below 60 & that was 59 on July 13.  The mean temperature has been above normal every day in July except three.  The first 9 days of July saw 90 or greater with three days at 95 (we peaked at 97 at our WLFI site).

Only 8 days since June 1 have failed to reach 85 & only 6 days since June 1 have dropped below 60.

In June, every day was above normal, but three (mean temperature).

This warm, warm & also frequently dry trend (now official drought in our northeastern counties) began May 14.  8 of the last 16 days of may were +80 & two reached the lower 90s.

Highs today reached 84-90 with peak heat indices to 96.

50% coverage of showers & some thunder in the morning to midday will go to 35% coverage of showers & storms in the afternoon.

It will be a humid day with highs 80-87 with warmest readings in the far north & coolest readings in the far south.  Winds will be tend to have an easterly component at 7-15 mph.

Isolated locally-heavy rainfall is possible.

Multiple supercells, supercell clusters & bows with severe weather risk will pass southwest, south & southeast of our area through Thursday night.

It appears that any rainfall Friday would be isolated to spotty with around 20-25% coverage with a mix of clouds & sun with highs in the 80-85 range with northeast wind 10-17 mph.

Low & overall troughiness will be slow to move, so kept 30% shower/storm coverage for Saturday & 40% shower/storm coverage for Sunday.  So, you have a better chance at getting wet Sunday, compared to Saturday with highs near 80 to the mid 80s with still rather humid conditions.

Coverage goes back down to 30% Monday & 20% Tuesday.  Highs of only 77-82 are possible Monday & Tuesday with lows 55-60.

Our low, combined with remnants of tropical storm or hurricane riding up the East Coast will keep the flow from the northwest here (thus cooler).

The trend is for a warm-up late next week to the next weekend with potential of a return of the 90 to 90s with high humidity.

The overall trend is for a round of below normal temperatures for a bit in early August, then going briefly above normal, followed by another round of below normal temperatures mid-August after more rainfall.

Beyond that, latter August to even early September looks hotter with a period of intense heat possible.

So, note the upper trough with cooler air in early August, then some ridging with hotter weather, then a deeper upper trough with cooler weather in mid-August.  The colors show the upper jet.  Where these U-shaped troughs dig in, that is the cooler air, while the more rainbow shape ridges are the hotter air.

Breaking this done further, it appears that late August to early September should feature two periods of quite hot weather with 90s.

Hot upper ridges will tend to set where they have a good chunk of this summer:  Great Lakes, Midwest to eastern Canada to New England.  Another hot upper ridge will occur in the Southwest & Far West.

The Northern Rockies & Nothern Plains show more of a tendency to be cooler.

As for September, we still look above normal temperature-wise with dominant upper ridging Great Lakes to Midwest & Northeast & over the West & Southwest U.S.

Normal to slightly cooler-than-normal weather in the Oklahoma to Arkansas & even Texas & eastern North Carolina areas seems to be tied to abundant rainfall from tropical systems.

Rainfall for August will likely end up normal or a bit above normal (wildcard would be a tropical system dumping heavy rainfall on the area), while rainfall for September continues to trend below normal.  Wildcard would be a tropical system making it into our area.

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