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July 28, 11:30 AM Weather Forecast Update

From smoke to heat wave & nearby derecho to cool-down...

Posted: Jul 26, 2021 10:56 AM
Updated: Jul 26, 2021 2:08 PM

Hot, humid to oppressive weather dominates today to Thursday.  Thicker smoke will arrive, too & it will arrive just in time as the really intense heat comes in.  So, this smoke will knock a few degrees off our high temperature as it dims the sun once again.

The air quality will not be ideal, but better than last week & this weekend.  High pollen & high particulates will be an issue for sensitive individuals.

Highs will generally run 88-95 & lows 67-76 over these few days.

Dew points will run 65-73 today, 68-76 tomorrow, 72-79 Wednesday & 77-82 Thursday.

So, Thursday is the most oppressive day of the week, but Wednesday will be bad, too.

Heat indices will run 90s to lower 100s AT LEAST daily, but rising to as high as 115 for parts of the area by Wednesday & Thursday.

We looks largely dry with complexes of severe storms riding ridge north & northeast of the area.

You always have to watch these in this pattern to make sure one doesn't track too far to the south or southwest into the area or an outflow boundary or gravity wave doesn't pop a few storms through the cap.  However, the next decent potential of storms is Thursday late afternoon-evening.

This looks like a potential Progressive Derecho from Manitoba to Virginia with widespread damaging winds.  The CAPE, shear & EML all support the evolution of an organized, bowing line of severe storms.  The worst of it would be Michigan to Ohio, but the tail end could get our area with wind threat.

Parameters suggest MODERATE RISK situation UP of Michigan to northern Ohio & northwestern Pennsylvania with ENHANCED around it us in the SLIGHT.  We will monitor.

There are some timing questions & questions about how much will develop farther west into our area or if it will track a bit farther west into our neck of the woods.

Behind this, cold front passing early Friday means & cooler & less humid Friday with northeast winds 10-25 mph & highs 78-83 with dew points dropping to the 50s to 60!

As for Saturday, it looks like one front laid up from Iowa to southwestern Indiana & Kentucky.  That is the front separating the oppressive heat from the more comfortable air.

A complex of severe storms may ride along that front, sparked by an MCV in Iowa (from storms night before in the High Plains monsoonal moisture surge & shortwave).  That severe risk would be southwest & south of our area.

A secondary cold front (partially lake front-induced) may pop a few showers & storms in the PM here with 35% coverage.  Highs near 80 to the mid 80s are likely with dew points pooling to the 60s ahead of that front.

After that, the weather looks dry Sunday-Thursday with it getting hotter, humid again Wednesday & onward.

However, Sunday-Tuesday looks good!  Highs 70s to lower 80s, low humidity & sunshine will dominate.

High humidity & 80s & 90s return at the end of next week with storms possible Friday (August 6) & then storms at times August 8-10 with 80s & 90s.

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