July 28, 10 PM Weather Forecast Update

Hotter Wednesday with isolated rain giving way to scattered showers & storms Wednesday night to Thursday.

Posted: Jul 28, 2020 12:55 PM
Updated: Jul 28, 2020 10:28 PM

After fog this morning & a slight drop in the humidity, highs today reached 82-88 after lows of 59-65 & fog this morning.

Tonight, lows of 59-65 are likely with a few clouds to patches of clouds with some patchy shallow fog (not as much as this morning, however).

Wednesday looks hot & rather humid with highs 87-92 & higher dew points resulting in heat indices reaching 90-97.  Winds will be southwesterly at 8-15 mph.

A few spotty showers & storms are possible Wednesday night coming in from the north along a weak cold front & from the southwest with the large low in Kansas to western Missouri spinning eastward.

This remnant circulation of Hanna combined with two areas of low pressure will make for scattered shower & storm development Thursday (45%).  The main area of severe weather risk is Kansas, Oklahoma & Missouri to far southern Illinois & northern Arkansas with SLIGHT to ENHANCED parameters showing up.

Winds will be from the northeast with highs 81-86 with an east to east-northeast wind at 7-13 mph.  It will be rather humid.

Low may stall over the Ohio Valley & keep some scattered showers & storms in the forecast with 30-45% coverage Friday-Sunday.

Highs of 79-86 are likely with lows 61-66.

A tropical storm, or possibly hurricane, will impact Florida late this weekend.

At this point, it appears storm will ride up the East Coast or ride northeastward through the Southeast & not impact our area. 

We will monitor.

The latest official National Hurricane Center track is below.

We heat up mid to late next week to that following weekend.

Mid-August looks a bit cooler than normal.

We heat up again late August to early September.  Summer-like, hot, humid weather may occur for Labor Day weekend.

August rainfall is trending more & more slightly above normal rainfall-wise. 

We will monitor to see if more of the above normal rainfall will get in here. 

This seems to be tied to active tropics & frequent upper ridging over eastern Canada to the Northeast to Great Lakes & even parts of the East Coast to the Gulf (& strong surface Bermuda high) pumping tropical, oppressive airmass & tropical remnants & moisture northward from the Atlantic to the Caribbean & Bay of Campeche to western Gulf of Mexico.

At this point, winter overall looks colder than normal in the Pacific Northwest & New England, but warmer than normal in the Plains, Midwest & Southeast.

At this point, there is continues to be a sign of a wetter than normal winter with drought developing in parts of the Plains, Southwest, California & Southeast.

Largest precipitation anomalies above normal should be in the Pacific Northwest & Northern Rockies & over the Lower Ohio Valley, including Illinois, Indiana, Ohio & western Kentucky to eastern & southeastern Missouri.

Flooding risk will be elevated in this zone for the winter & spring & we look to have a bit above normal flooding risk for the winter & spring.

Snowfall in our area currently looks below normal.

Last year saw near to a bit above normal snowfall because we began getting accumulating snows in October in what was a unusually early start to winter with record cold.  Snows continued to as late as April.  Believe it or not, least snowy month of the entire Fall-Winter-Spring was January!  When you have 7 months of snows, they add up!  Some winters we have a lot of snow, but they fall in a 2.5-month time frame, so it seems like we are buried!  Last year seems like we saw little due to them being so, so spread out.

Also, despite these numerous snows, they were not overly-heavy & did not last very long on the ground. 

Even though the overall winter ended up warmer than normal, Fall & Spring were quite colder than normal & we still saw some -20 readings with peach tree kill & die-back in February.

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