July 27, 11 PM Weather Forecast Update

Bad air & smoke to hot weather with more humidity & risk of severe weather Thursday...

Posted: Jul 27, 2021 2:03 PM
Updated: Jul 28, 2021 2:58 AM

Since Friday viewing area highs & peak heat indices:

Friday: 84-92.....91-106

Saturday: 87-93...96-113

Sunday: 87-92...91-104

Monday: 87-92...88-100

Today:  85-92...87-99

Wednesday will be dry with 87-93 with heat indices 96-112 with sun, heat indices as high as 80 & a southwest wind.  Lows Wednesday night will only drop to 73-78.

Line of severe storms originating in Manitoba will blast through Minnesota to Wisconsin to Michigan, northern Illinois, northeastern Indiana to Ohio, Pennsylvania, West Virginia to Virginia & Delaware Wednesday-Wednesday night..

Best chance of it raking our area is our northeastern counties.  It would be a wind threat in the 4:30-7:30 a.m. time frame.  Western & southwestern counties of less potential. 

Could it attain Progressive Derecho status?  Possibly.  Wind & thermodynamics profiles support a vigorous bowing line with developing comma head or Bookend Vortex.  The areas most affected will be Manitoba to northeastern Minnesota, through central Wisconsin to southern Lower Michigan to northern Ohio with ENHANCED to MODERATE RISK parameters..  Some pockets/corridors of gusts +75 mph seem reasonable.

Stay tuned for changes to that forecast.  It could change & end up completely raking the area if smoke-induced capping isn't an issue & the cold pool developing with the complex makes it move a bit more west in its track.

The bowing line of storms' outflow boundary may set up over the heart of the area or our southwestern half late morning to midday.

So, southwest half of the area may see new storms flare up as we heat up along & south of that boundary.  Threat would tend to be 1-5 pm.

Issue would be wind & locally-heavy rainfall.

Stay tuned for changes to that forecast.

A wildcard that still cannot be ignored is smoke here.  The plume of greatest density would tend to set up in our western counties Thursday morning to midday.  This could inhibit the best storm development there.

All parameters.....northeastern counties & southwestern counties all show SLIGHT RISK or Level 2 parameters.

Saturday looks warm with 80s & rather humid with a southwest wind.  Much of the day is dry & partly cloudy, but a few showers & storms may sneak into the viewing area after 6:30-7 p.m. from the north along surface cold front.

As for Sunday, a few spotty showers & isolated storms are possible in the cold air aloft with highs 79-85 with lowering humidity.

Overall, next week looks good weather-wise with rather dry weather.  Highs will be dominated by 77-84 with lows 52-58 & 50s dew points.

We will likely turn humid by Friday of next week & warm to 85-90 at that point.

The first week of August is trending overall a bit cooler than normal here (rainfall will also be below normal).

It does appear that a hotter than normal trend will occur largely around August 10-17.

August 17-24 looks hotter than normal, as well.

Hotter than normal trend may carry us to around August 29 it appears, then it gets cooler.

A band of a bit below normal rainfall will likely occur over a chunk of the viewing area in August.

A cooler than normal & drier than normal September is expected, overall.  The drier part may change if a tropical system makes it up into our area.

Tropics are inactive in the Atlantic & Caribbean & will be for the next 5-7 days EXCEPT disturbance south of Cuba.  That is the only disturbance that will need to be watched. 

A massive plume of Saharan dust blowing off Africa & over much of the Atlantic is producing an increasingly strong subtropical high with a lack of much rainfall & thus much of a catalyst for tropical development.

MJO is also inactive.  It is a substantial driver of big upticks in tropical activity in the Atlantic & Caribbean when Saharan dust is not a big issue. 

It needs to swing way out in Phase 7, 8 & 1 to initiate very active tropics.  It is very close to the middle of the chart, which means weaker MJO & MJO responses.

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More welcome rainfall ahead...
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