July 26, 5 PM Weather Forecast Update

Heating up this weekend (& gradually turning humid), but showers/storms by Monday.

Posted: Jul 26, 2019 3:35 PM
Updated: Jul 26, 2019 5:31 PM

We saw 4 consecutive lows in the 50s officially at the West Lafayette Purdue Ag Farm site.

This is the first time this has occur in July since 2014.

The longest stretch in July was in 1962.

Interestingly, the 2000s saw the greatest occurrences of July 50s stretches since the 1890s.  2000-10 saw several cooler Julys & summers overall (exceptions are 2007 & 2010). 

1962 & 1967 were much cooler-than-normal Julys in general, but 1881 was once of the hottest, driest summers & Julys on record.  So, it having the second longest stretch of 50s lows in July on record seems odd.

Much of the month saw lows in the 70s, in fact, 11 consecutive days saw lows in the 70s (with highs 90s & 100s).  However, the last 9 days of July saw highs 80s & 90s.  Yes, a bit cooler, but not excessive.  It was just cool enough with the extremely dry ground & withered vegetation to see big temperature drops at night, which is what occurred.

Also, from 1926 to 1937, no stretches of 50s in July exceeded more than 3 days.  1941-46 saw such a stretch, as well.

Some Julys saw zero lows drop below 60.  Examples are 1916, 1938.

Most consecutive days with lows of at least the 50s at West Lafayette in July:

1. 10 - 1962

2. 9 - 1881, 1967

3. 8 - 1918, 2000

4. 7 - 1882, 1892, 1947, 1994, 1998, 2014

5. 6 - 1882, 1891, 1894, 1896, 1906, 1959, 1960, 1976, 2004, 2005, 2007

Number of times per decade with 6 or more consecutive days in July with lows in the 50s:

1880s:  3

1890s:  4

1900s:  1

1910s:  1

1920s:  0

1930s:  0

1940s:  1

1950s:  1

1960s:  3

1970s:  1

1980s:  0

1990s:  2

2000s:  4

2010s:  1

Looks like a mostly sunny, hot, breezy weekend with 87-91 Saturday & 90-93 Sunday (lows near 70 to the lower 70s).

Heat indices should peak at 90-93 Saturday & 97-102 Sunday.

Line/band of showers & storms will occur Monday (60%).  An isolated severe storms or two is possible.

Highs will run 85-90 with heat indices 92-99 with dew points rising into the 70s.

Any lingering showers will exit early Tuesday morning, followed by slightly lower humidity, partly cloudy skies & highs 85-88 Tuesday after 64-68 in the morning.

A shortwave & weak secondary cold front coming through may bring a few scattered showers & storms Wednesday afternoon-evening (30%).  It will turn a bit more humid with highs in the 80s.

Thursday looks dry with sunshine & some clouds with highs in the 80s.............same thing for Friday.  Humidity will be a bit lower.  Lows will run near 60s to the lower 60s.

Some scattered showers & storms are possible next Saturday as cold front sinks southeastward.  Highs should run in the 80s.

Troughiness will keep our heat in-check in early August.

There are signs of a couple of fronts stalling over the area in the August 6-11 with multiple waves of showers & storms.

One round could feature some severe risk given stronger upper jet near/over area a time or two..

Highs in the upper 70s to 80s will dominate with lows in the 60s.

It does not look overly-hot, but it will be muggy in multiple occasions.

Current data suggests a total of 1-3" of rainfall in this period with isolated higher amounts possible.

Some 4-6" rain amounts are possible over a band in Missouri & Iowa.  Another band of enhanced rainfall could develop from St. Louis to Columbus, Ohio.

Upper ridge bulges & moves eastward, bringing us potential of late-season heat wave with stretch of 90s in late August (with heat indices in the 100s).  Given wetter soils & late corn crop tasseling, growing & maturing, dew points well into the 70s are likely.  So, heat indices may peak as high as 111.

Storms at the end of the heat will then segway into cooler weather moving into September.

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