July 26, 11 PM Weather Forecast Update

Smoke, bad air, heat, oppressive humidity to storms to cool-down...

Posted: Jul 26, 2021 8:52 PM
Updated: Jul 26, 2021 11:13 PM

Today highs ran upper 80s to lower 90s (87.8 today at the Purdue Airport with dew point peaking at 72.4), but a tongue slightly less humid air came in.  It wasn't great & refreshing, but it cut the heat indices a hair.  The hottest days of the past four has been Saturday when heat indices were in the dangerous category for our southwestern counties as the dew points reached 80-82.

So far, the heat has not ballooned out of contral.  Indeed, it is hot, but the worst has been staying west & southwest of  our area.

We have heard about the massive drought & fires, all-time record heat, the smoke & flooding in the world, but a quiet disaster is unfolding in U.S. right now......

First.....viewing area highs & peak heat indices earch day since Friday:

Friday:  84-92.....91-106

Saturday:  87-93...96-113

Sunday:  87-92...91-104

Today:  87-92...88-100

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That quiet or silent disaster is the extreme, deadly heat from Missouri to Lousiana with areas getting to near 100 with dew points near all-time records up to 86.  Heat indices have been +120 at times.  Raymond, Mississippi saw the heat index hit 126 today & 122 at Camden, Arkansas.  Vicksburg, Mississippi hit 100 today with heat index nearing 120.  At Southland, Texas Airport, it reached 101 today, & Greenville, Mississippi to Pine Bluff, Arkansas 99.  Even around water at Port of South Louisiana Regional Airport today it hit 100.  Issue is that this would be hot without extreme humidity, but dew points are about as extreme as you can get.   

Due to a bit of a northeast to north wind, this sort of extreme heat & humidity has been held at bay for us rather than the door wide open for several days of 80 dew points here (like it appeared last week).

It appears that the dew points will gradually increase again as the wind turns back to the south & southwest.

It appears we may see a few 80-degree dew points by Wednesday & then more widespread 80-degree dew points Thursday.

The good news is that the worst heat will be displaced from the highest dew points & the thick smoke will cut temperatures a bit.

Good news for us, BAD news for southeastern Iowa & Missouri where dangerous heat will occur with heat indices nearing 120.

The +100 heat will set up largely west of our area when we see the 80 dew points.  We will see around 90 to the lower 90s, but not upper 90s & 100s like the deadly heat wave on-going southwest of our area.

Our air is still pretty bad, too & it will continue to be bad to as late as Thursday (ozone & particulates.....mixed with high pollen).

Thicker smoke aloft will come in Tuesday & especially Wednesday to Thursday, dimming the sun.  Some smoke may mix down at lower levels in northwest flow aloft (despite low-level flow from the southwest) due to smoke closer by from the Minnesota & Ontario to Manitoba fires.

Bowing complex of storms with conditions favorable with widespread damaging winds (possible Progressive Derecho) should track from Manitoba to Ohio, Pennsylvania to Virginia Wednesday evening-Thursday midday.

This bow's outflow boundary should be over the heart of the area at midday in a boiling hot, unstable airmass with temperatures 87-92 & dew points around 80 (with southwest wind at 10-20 mph.  We look capped & a bit smoky at that time, but just boiling & searing with ML CAPE 4000-5000 J/kg.

It appears that cap may have a lot of trouble breaking, being enhanced by the smoke, but we should see storms flare on the outflow boundary & move southward in the afternoon.

Winds should turn to the north behind the boundary at 15-25 mph as surface cold front merges with it.

This will push the 80-degree dew points out of the area & we will see them drop to the 60s & 70s.  Temperatures should hit 88-95 with heat indices near 100 to 115, then fall to 82-90 north to south.

Line of severe storms could completely overcome the cap with time with wind & isolated large hail threat from Cincinnati, Ohio to Springfield, Illinois by early evening.

Another scenario that could transpire would be that bow or derecho tracks a bit farther west, or its tail end develops more & brings us a line of severe storms around late morning or midday.  That is not 100% out of the realm of possibility, but the first scenario (mentioned prior) seems more reasonable at the moment.  We will monitor. 

As for Friday, it looks cooler with a north-northeast to northeast wind at 10-25 mph with sunshine & highs 80-85 with dew points in the 58-66 range.

As for Saturday, a secondary surface cold front will approach from the north.  Higher dew points will pool in the area at 65-71.  So, it will start to feel humid & uncomfortable.  Highs will reach 82-88 with wind turning back to the southwest at 10-20 mph

A complex of severe storms may track from South Dakota & Nebraska trough Missouri to far southern Illinois, southwest Indiana & Kentucky.

Meanwhile, a broken line of showers & storms may run from Kankakee, Illinois to Detroit Michigan by late afternoon.

These would tend to pass in the evening-early night, but coverage will run about 30%.

Frontal boundary in the vicinity of the area Sunday with 80s, pooling humidity & some cool air aloft with lead to some scattered showers & storms with 35% coverage.  Dew points will be humid at 66-71.

Monday may feature a couple isolated showers with otherwise cumulus clouds, northwest winds & highs 79-84.  Dew points will be more comfortable at 58-64.  Lows will drop to the 50s Monday night.

Tuesday looks good with highs 78-82 & dew points in the 50s to 60.  Lows will run in the 50s.

We will tend to heat up & get oppressively humid later next week with some storms.

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