Coolest temperatures this morning were in a pocket in southern Montgomery County, especially around New Market & from Lafayette to Monticello. Rest of the area was mid to upper 50s.
Highs today ran 75-81 with much of the area near 80.
Any storms will stay way north of us for days after a nice cool 50s night tonight & a bright, dry 83-87 tomorrow (as winds shift to the south-southeast).
We will heat up with the hot ridging settling in. There will be lots of sunshine each day & it looks like a dry heat until Saturday night through Monday.
Highs will average 90-95 for the weekend to Monday with peak heat indices reaching 98-105.
Overnight lows will run in the 60s to lower 70s.
Storms are possible Monday evening with isolated severe risk.
Wave of low pressure on the front may bring some scattered showers & a few storms Tuesday.
After Monday's heat & humidity, Tuesday may be muggy, but it may only reach 79-83.
A few more scattered showers & storms are possible Wednesday with 79-84.
Early August still looks to overall favor a cooler, wetter pattern. It won't be cooler the entire time, but overall regime supports the cooler, wetter side.
A period of severe risk is possible in the transition between the cooler, wetter & hotter, drier pattern.
Late August still favors a late-season heat wave with 92-97 & heat indices in the 100s (as high as 111).
After storms, cooler pattern should arrive by the start of September.
I continue to lean on average mean temperatures below normal & rainfall above normal in September.
It may be a situation of below normal temperatures to start October, then transitioning to above normal temperatures. Overall rainfall in October looks to trend overall above normal.
Ran through latest data & still looks like an overall warmer than normal & drier than normal November through December.
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