July 24, 1 PM Weather Forecast Update

The big warm-up, then nice cool-down (again).

Posted: Jul 24, 2019 12:18 PM
Updated: Jul 24, 2019 1:12 PM

Today will be nice with near 80 to as high as 84 for highs with low humidity & just some fair weather cumulus developing.  Winds will be north-northeast at 10-20 mph. 

55-60 tonight will give way to 84-88 tomorrow.  It will be mostly sunny to sunny with low humidity.

It may be 87-91 Friday, but the humidity will still be low with mostly sunny to sunny skies.

Upper ridge will really take over later Friday through Monday.

With hazy sunshine, highs will run 90 to as high as 95 with heat indices reaching 97 to as high as 105.  Lows will overall run 68-73.

So, this will differ from the last heat wave in that it will not be 91-97 & heat indices won't be 105-116 with lows 75-80.

Any storm action will tend to occur in the "Ring of Fire" way north of our area.

Round of showers/storms is likely Monday evening-night.  Isolated severe weather is possible.  Rainfall coverage of 70% is likely.

This will occur as cold front & upper trough approach & pass.

Wave of surface low may ride along the front Tuesday, resulting in some showers lingering into the afternoon before tapering.  Coverage looks to average near 50%.

So, Tuesday looks cooler with lots of clouds & highs in the 70s to lower 80s.

Upper trough digging into area will carry a shortwave with it Wednesday.  As this pivots in, cumulus clouds will bubble up & some scattered showers & storms may develop.  Humidity will be lower & highs will run upper 70s to lower 80s, but cold air aloft with shortwave will support 35% coverage of rainfall at peak heating in the afternoon-early evening.

It appears that front will move back northward & may stall over the area with showers & storms increasing late next Friday (August 3).

Showers & storms may occur at times August 4-5 with front in the vicinity with highs near 80 to the 80s.

With baroclinic zone potential over area with 70s north & muggy mid 80s south, increasing deep layer CAPE & us being on the edge of potent upper jet streak, it is possible that severe weather develops one or both days.

Strengthening deep layer shear from stronger wind field aloft may lead to organizing cluster or lines of storms.

Will will monitor & wait & see how this unfolds.

Bouts of below normal temperatures will tend to be frequent through early August.

Pattern looks to flip after mid-August with late August heat wave possible & above normal temperature domination.  This domination could occur to the end of the month before cooling by Labor Day.

The West looks unusually cool, the East & over much of northeast Canada looks exceptionally warm to hot.

In the process of this ridge building, we may very well see rounds of storms near August 18-21 with severe weather ridge as the "Ring of Fire" sets up over our area, then builds northward.

I do think the late August heat wave may feature higher heat indices at 105-111 with highs 91-97.  There will be greater humidity from wetter soils (from recent wetter pattern) & much corn being in an active growth & tasseling stage a month later than normal.

Vegetation from grass to trees will also be lush from the recent rainfall during the time.

Note the stronger jet winds shifting way northward as hot upper ridge re-builds into our region:

Strong West U.S. upper trough should swing east & northeastward, bringing abrupt end to the heat wave before Labor Day with storms possible.

Much cooler weather should be around by Labor Day with 70s to 80 (with much lower humidity) rather than 90s.

I do think our temperatures will be a part of that below normal area in the Plains & Corn Belt for September as a whole.

I also think September will be wetter than normal with troughing in Plains & Corn Belt with heat & hot ridging in the southeastern & Mid-Atlantic U.S.

Also much tropical moisture from tropical storms & hurricanes from the Pacific & Atlantic to Bay of Campeche will be diverted & pulled up into an area from western Mexico to Texas to Missouri, Indiana, then Ontario & New England.

I was thinking cooler & wetter than normal October at first, but I am seeing some mixed signaling now.  There are some trends suggesting that the warmer & drier pattern expected for November may get going in October.

This would be ideal.

We NEED a late, late frost & freeze date with lots of heat to get this very late corn & soybean crop (at least very late for many farmers in the viewing area) to maturity & good yield.

It would be a rarity, but lots of warmth with an early November first freeze would be ideal, rather than mid-October first freeze.

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Warmer Tuesday With Chances For Scattered Storms and Rain
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