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July 23, 12:30 PM Weather Forecast Update

Dangerous heat & some storms with severe weather risk ahead!

Posted: Jul 23, 2021 12:00 PM
Updated: Jul 23, 2021 12:55 PM

Air Quality Alert has been lifted in all of Indiana except the Lake Michigan shoreline counties.

The air quality will still not be good, but it will be an improvement from what we saw yesterday the day before as winds mix the air more at lower levels as surface high moves to the southeast.

A couple to a few storms are possible later this afternoon this evening, otherwise it looks capped, smoky & partly cloudy with 80s to around 91 & heat indices 90s to lower 100s.

Winds will be southwest 8-15 mph.

As for Saturday.......

After 70s tonight highs of 88-94 with heat indices of near 100 to 110 are likely Saturday.  Dew points should peak at 75-80.  Winds will be southwest at 10-20 mph.

A highly-broken line of storms will move southward from Wisconsin & Michigan.

There is a MARGINAL RISK (Level 1 of 5) of severe weather for our area for mainly wind as these storms.

Timing of scattered storms with the MARGINAL RISK is 6 pm-11 pm. 

On Sunday, storms appear more likely to occur southeast & well east & northeast of our area.  They look more like splitting supercells with wind & hail risk (& isolated tornado threat) in Ontario to New England than a solid line.  Regardless, parameters suggest SLIGHT RISK (up to ENHANCED IN Ontario in environment of better shear for larger hail & isolated tornado risk).

This will be the a similar case back to Ohio, southern Indiana, Kentucky to North Carolina.  They will be broken lines with wind risk.

I kept Sunday dry here for now with highs near 90-95 & dew points 73-79 with heat indices near 100-113.  Wind should be northwest at 10-15 mph.

Monday looks dry with a light west to northwest wind & highs 89-95.  Dew points will run 73-78 in the morning, then actually drop to 67-71 for a time in the afternoon as a little tongue of drier air wraps in before they rise back to 73-78 by evening.  Heat indices should peak at 94-106.

As for Tuesday, dew points should tend to run 70-75 in the morning, then rise to 76-80 in the afternoon.  That, with highs 89-94, means heat indices should peak at 99-114.  Winds will be southwest at 8-15 mph.

A line of severe storms should blow up in central Wisconsin to Michigan & Ontario Tuesday evening in the "Ring of Fire" after cluster or complex of storms in the morning over UP of Michigan to Ontario.

This "Ring of Fire" "Ridge Rider" could impact part of or all of the viewing area with a wind threat late Tuesday night &/or Wednesday morning.

Cap & smoke will be a bit of a detriment, but higher-end SLIGHT RISK (Level 2 of 5) parameters will exist if these issues are completely overcome.

We will monitor.

Tuesday night will be very warm & unstable with lows only near 76 with a southwest wind.

The rest of Wednesday looks dry with highs 89-95 with dew points dropping to 67-72 briefly, then rising again to 75-80 late.  Heat indices should peak at 95-108.

Next time to watch for a "Ridge Rider" would tend to be Saturday evening-night (July 31).  There is an outside potential of something Friday evening, but that is very blurry at the moment.  Focus is more on the Saturday evening-night storms coming from Iowa with the cold front & upper trough as hot upper ridge contracts a bit.

Severe weather risk will be in place on the order of SLIGHT to ENHANCED RISK (Level 2-3 of 5) it appears right now.

So, Thursday & Friday should look very hot with 90s & Saturday looks especially hot as 90s & pooling dew points around 80 create heat indices to 116.

Keep in mind, this forecast for July 31-August 1 weekend is fluid, & tiny differences in timing will make for big changes to the forecast.

Brief cool down with less humid air will follow before we heat right back up with high dew points & the risk of storms in the "Ring of Fire" again.

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