July 23, 11 PM Weather Forecast Update

Here is your latest forecast update!

Posted: Jul 23, 2021 9:42 PM
Updated: Jul 24, 2021 2:50 AM

Highs today reached 84-92 with heat indices 91-106.  Much of the area saw heat indices 92-97.

Dew points here today reached as high as 77.

They were 79-82 from southern Illinois to Arkansas through western Tennessee through Louisiana & Mississippi.  At 7:55 p.m., it was 86 at the Vicksburg, Mississippi Airport with a dew point of 84!  The high dew points have reached Mt. Vernon, Illinois as of now with temperature of 79 & dew point of 79!  That is a steam bath!

At 1:35 pm, the temperature at the Brookhaven, Mississippi Airport was 90 with a dew point of 84, leading to a heat index of 116.

At Corning, Arkansas Airport (on southeastern Missouri border), dew points reached 82 today.  At 4:55 p.m., it was 91 with a dew point of 82, leading to a heat index of 113.  These very oppressive low-level moisture is migrating northeastward as our hot upper ridge expands.  This will lead to intense, oppressive heat Saturday & Sunday with many areas see heat indices at or above 110.

Smoke will thin some Saturday evening, but air quality will still not be good through Saturday afternoon-evening until some storms in the area mix things up.

An isolated storm or two is possible Saturday with highs 88-94 & heat indices 100-112.  Winds will be southwest at 10-20 mph.

Broken line of storms with a few severe gusts is expected Saturday evening in the 6-11 p.m. time frame.  MARGINAL to SLIGHT RISK parameters look to be in place.

Sunday looks dry, partly cloudy & hot with west-southwest/west/northwest wind varying at 10-15 mph.

Highs of 90-95 are expected with heat indices 100-114.

Smoke should re-thicken on Sunday & air quality begin to decrease again after improvement early in the day.  Some patchy fog is possible Sunday morning.

Monday looks dry, partly cloudy & hot with a light northwest wind becoming southwest with highs near 90 to 95 with heat indices 96-111.  A period of dew points dropping to 65-70 are possible Monday with 70s in the morning & late afternoon-evening.

Tuesday is dry with hot, with near 90 to 90s with heat indices near 100 to 111.

We may get clipper by a "Ring of Fire" "Ridge Rider" Tuesday night-Wednesday AM with some wind risk.  We will monitor.

The same thing may happen Thursday evening or night after 90 to the mid 90s Thursday with heat indices 100 to 111.  Threat would be some damaging gusts.

Friday looks dry with some of the instability & oppressive dew points gutted by Thursday evening-night complex of storms.  So, highs 80s to 90s are expected with heat indices 90s to lower 100s.

IR satellite image shows this complex Wednesday morning (MCV in the Dakotas will blow up another complex potentially for that Thursday evening-night period potentially).

As for next Saturday, July 31, very high dew points near 80 may re-pool ahead of a cool front advancing southward.

This, combined with an apparent MCV over Missouri & Iowa from "Ridge Rider" in the Plains the night before, could result in a complex of storms developing.

This would blow up in Iowa & Illinois to Missouri & move southeastward.

It would tend to impact the area Saturday evening with a wind threat after highs in the 90s with heat indices near 100 to 114.

Hopefully, we just get the front through Friday & Saturday is dry, cooler & less humid.  Timing will be everything.

You can see the big flare-up of storms expected in the projected IR satellite below (Is it Friday or is it Saturday, though?.....Time will tell!):

Keep in mind that smoke thickness aloft will be in a state of flux of being dense for a while, then thinning, then going dense again.  This will impact storm development if the thick smoke coincides with storm development.  The thick smoke creates a cap, which can disrupt storm development.  However, given the boiling 4000 J/kg ML CAPE projected on multiple days, if that smoke & cap can be overcome, then storms will really go up.

Storm flare-ups look to be all south of us with cooler, less humid weather in here Sunday of next weekend (August 1).

The cooler, less humid weather with 70s & 80s will not last.

The hot, oppressive pattern with the "Ring of Fire" & "Ridge Riders" will re-emerge with 90s & heat indices to +110 here after August 6.  Some storms are also possible, but smoke will be monitored as well.

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Decreasing clouds this afternoon with slightly warmer temperatures
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