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July 22, 2 PM Weather Forecast Update

Bad air, wildfire smoke, dangerous heat wave & some storms with severe weather risk ahead...

Posted: Jul 22, 2021 12:36 PM
Updated: Jul 22, 2021 2:23 PM

The extreme heat wave over Iran, Turkey to Russia has now retrograded westward to Europe & is bringing widespread record heat.  Northern Ireland recorded their highest temperature on record yesterday. 

Shannon, Ireland reached 85 when the normal high is 67 & all-time record is 90.

This heat wave over the saturated soils of parts of Europe are making for high dew points & very high heat indices, adding to the flood clean-up misery.

Meanwhile, heat wave & upper ridge are intensifying one again in Montana to the Plains with 101 yesterday at Bismarck, North Dakota.  It reached 100 at Glasgow, Montana, as well as Pierre, South Dakota & up at Wolf Point, Montana.  Twin Falls, Idaho was 99, while Ogden, Utah saw 99, as well as Wendover, Utah & Grand Junction, Colorado.  Way up at nearly 5200', Delta, Colorado hit 100.  Northern California's Redding hit 99 & Mt. Shasta soared to 91.

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Bad air quality continues over the region.  The thick smoke several thousand feet up is from Northwest, West U.S. to Canadian fires, while the lower level smoke that is able to mix down is tied to big fires in northern Minnesota, western Ontario & Manitoba.

We should reach "Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups" level again today, but even if you are healthy, you may notice scratchy throat, runny nose & itchy burning eyes.  Pollen is also quite high from warm season grasses, contributing to the irritating air

Few storms possible in far northeast Friday morning will give way to a storm or two in the PM elsewhere.  Otherwise, it looks rather capped & smoky.

I kept coverage of rainfall at 30%.

There is risk of an isolated severe storm over northern Jasper, Pulaski to Fulton counties.

After lows tonight near 70, highs tomorrow should reach 80s to lower 90s with heat indices 90 to the 90s.

Winds will be southwest at 5-10 mph.

Saturday looks capped, hot, muggy to oppressive & smoky.

Complexes of severe storms are possible Ontario to Michigan to northeastern Illinois Saturday-Saturday night.  Michigan to Ontario parameters for severe are impressive with ENHANCED RISK to MODERATE RISK type situation (worst of it in Ontario).  This will eventually move into northern New England.

One complex of storms may clip us in the late afternoon-evening Saturday & then another may clip us Saturday night.

So, kept coverage of storms at 30% with risk of isolated severe storms Saturday afternoon-evening, then raised it to 40% Saturday night. 

The one Saturday night has a better potential of impacting more of the viewing area.  Also, bit better severe potential will get into the area Saturday night, so we may see some SLIGHT RISK make it into part of the viewing area after more MARGINAL RISK for Saturday PM.

Our complex of storms may reach North Carolina & Georgia by Sunday afternoon-evening & continue to pose a severe weather threat.  Typical "Ring of Fire" complex, it may hold together for a long time.  It will ride periphery of upper ridge to the Appalachians & Piedmont with SLIGHT RISK parameters continuing.

Highs of 88-94 are expected with heat indices of 97-108.

Winds will be southwest at 10-20 mph.

Sunday will feature sun, smoke & 88-94 with heat indices 97-107 with little meso-high behind the "Ridge Rider" bringing light & variable winds.

Two severe storm complexes in the "Ring of Fire" will likely develop Monday in Ontario & move into Quebec & another in North Dakota & move into Minnesota.

Our highs will reach 90-95 with heat indices 99-110 with a light wind.  We look dry, unless a storm can form on a lake breeze front surging in with the boiling instability.

Another "Ring of Fire" "Ridge Rider" may impact us Tuesday late or Tuesday night from Wisconsin & Michigan.

Complex of severe storms or a Progressive Derecho may blast through Ontario & through New England with widespread, long-lived significant damaging wind event on Wednesday.

Here, we look dry at the moment, capped & smoky with highs 91-97 with heat indices 100-114.

We will make sure none of this tracks farther west or our own bowing complex of severe storms doesn't develop here & bring damaging wind event.

If that would happen it would come in from the north-northeast or northeast from Michigan & southeastern Ontario.

Thursday & Friday look dry, hot & very humid right now with 90s.  We need to watch this bowing complex of storms with a wind threat for Saturday evening (July 31).

It would develop in Minnesota, Wisconsin & Iowa, then race southeastward ahead of a strong cold front & upper trough.

Severe weather risk (wind) would be the issue.

Exact timing is in question, but be aware of it.  It may come through more Sunday or it may come through more Sunday morning, even Friday.  Timing is the question.

Ahead of it, it will be boiling hot in the 90s with heat indices 110-119 on Saturday.

Sunday looks cooler & gradually less humid with northwest to north wind & highs 80-87 with dew points dropping from 68-72 to 57-65 (after 79-81 Saturday).

Monday & Tuesday look nice with north winds becoming east & highs 75-80 Monday & 78-82 Tuesday.  Lows in the 50s are expected.  This, UNLESS the hot ridge overpowers the upper trough in some way & the much cooler weather hits Ohio eastward or just New England instead of here.  My analog data says that is a distinct possibly, which would mean that we miss much of the relief.  We will see & monitor closely.

As quickly as we cool off, however, we heat up in a big way & the "Ring of Fire" pattern will resume.

Another dangerous heat wave should develop with highs in the 90s & dew points around 81.

Heat indices +110 are likely.

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