July 22, 11 PM Weather Forecast Update

A bit cooler & less humid, but a hot, muggy to oppressive weekend. Then eyes turn to the tropics.

Posted: Jul 22, 2020 10:37 PM
Updated: Jul 22, 2020 11:27 PM

Of the 4 severe weather events in 2020, 3 have occurred in the past 11 days.  Areas farther north of seen upwards of 9 events or outbreaks in the past 11 days.  Most of these have been from shortwaves & MCVs on the periphery of the hot upper ridge that has brought up to 5 consecutive days of temperatures near or exceeding 100 east of our area.  The last of the Heat Advisories are finally ending there tonight after a severe weather outbreak today!

Speaking of the heat, here are plotted near/record temperatures just from July 19.  Some of the daily records from the 1930s heat waves have been broken in this zone.

It once appeared this heat core would be right over our area with wet soils (means high dew points & dangerous heat indices), but we have avoided 98-101 (for actual air temperature) so far.

Another testament to the lack of severe weather & the hot, dry, bright pattern we have had since late May is the fact that the last 5 days have had a lot of cloudiness.  This is the longest period of such cloudiness seen since May 17-20.  So, this recent "Ring of Fire" scenario with rounds & rounds of showers & storms has brought more cloudiness & welcome rainfall. 

On a side note, we have not had a high temperature at the station observation site or the Purdue Airport below 85 since June 27.  The last time we saw a high below 80 was June 14 here at our WLFI site & June 1 at the Purdue Airport.

Today, highs reached 82-88 with the highest heat index occurring at the Covington observation site at 100.  There, a dew point of 79 was measured.  Elsewhere, dew points were tropical & oppressive, reaching as high as 77.

Tonight, there a still a few lingering isolated showers as of 10:45 p.m.

A few are possible through 12 a.m., followed by just partly cloudy skies, some patchy fog & lows in the 64-69 range.

Thursday looks partly cloudy with highs 81-88 & heat indices 83-91 (with nice northwest breeze), followed by some patchy fog & 62-66 Thursday night-early Friday morning.

Friday looks warmer with partly cloudy skies becoming mostly sunny with 85-90 & heat indices 85-92.  There will be a lack of wind with northeast wind at 3-6 mph.

Any storms will stay well northwest of our area as intense heat builds northward in the Plains & central to western Corn Belt.

90s are likely for the weekend with heat indices at or above 100 & a southwest breeze.  A couple to few isolated storms are possible Saturday & Sunday. 

A tropical system should make landfall in Texas late in the weekend & deep tropical monsoonal moisture from the Pacific will surge into the Desert Southwest to the Rockies & Plains.

The deep tropical moisture will feed round of rain & storms late Monday to Monday night in our area.  Any severe weather risk looks isolated.

Rainfall should exit Tuesday morning.

Cooler & less humid weather will move in Tuesday afternoon to Wednesday with highs 80-86 & lows 58-65.

The remnants of the Texas tropical system should reach the Plains of eastern Colorado.  There, it should encounter leeside cyclogenesis influence & reform into more of a mid-lattitude surface storm system.

System should pull warm front through & usher in heat & humidity around July 30-31.

Then, showers & storms look likely as it pass through.

There are still signs of the potential of a SLIGHT to ENHANCED RISK scenario.

Meanwhile, another tropical system may be headed for northern Mexico or the U.S. state of Texas.

Another tropical system (likely a hurricane) may impact the Southeast after August 2.

A burst of intense heat may return prior to mid-August with severe weather risk shifting way north to Montana, the Dakotas & Minnesota to Manitoba. 

Just beyond that point a surge of cooler, more comfortable air is possible after some storms.

In late August, a hot upper ridge may take over with surge of 90s for a while.  The trend is to keep above normal temperatures through the Labor Day period.  Rainfall is below normal for this period, unless a tropical system directly impacts the area with rainfall.  Such a situation could also alter temperatures some.

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Some snow Wednesday to Wednesday night.....
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