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July 22, 11 PM Weather Forecast

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Posted: Jul 22, 2021 9:43 PM
Updated: Jul 22, 2021 10:53 PM

The heat underneath the upper ridge is dominating the Plains now.  Highs today reached 105 at Bismarck, North Dakota, 102 Pierre, South Dakota, 102 at Chadron, Nebraska & 100 at McCook, Nebraska.

It is incredibly warm in northern Canada with 84 today at Inuvik, Northwest Territories.  Gjoa Haven, NWT on Prince Edward Island hit 67, surrounded by icy cold water when the normal high is around 52. 

With thick smoke, highs today reached 80-88 with heat indices 82-93.

Smoke & capping will be disruptive to a lot of storm development here tonight-tomorrow, but a few showers & storms are expected tomorrow morning & perhaps tomorrow afternoon-evening.  Coverage should run 25-30%.

It will muggy tonight with some patchy fog & lows near 70, followed by mid 80s to around 91 tomorrow with heat indices 90s to around 100.

Winds will be southwest at 5-10 mph with still pretty bad air quality at or very near the Orange or "Unhealthy for Sensitive Individuals" range.

Tomorrow morning: 

Tomorrow late afternoon-evening:

An isolated storm or two is possible Saturday, otherwise it looks capped & a bit smoky with highs 88-94 & heat indices 100-108.  Winds will be southwest at 10-20 mph to mix the air more to help improve the air quality some.

Saturday late evening-night, a line of storms will approach from the north with severe weather risk, but it will tend to have trouble maintaining much of a solid line & will end up in pieces.

It will also weaken with southward extent given capping issues.  However, enough will hang out to account for isolated severe weather risk (wind).

Additional "Ring of Fire" "Ridge Riders" will need to be monitored upstream on periphery of very hot upper ridge.

We will have boiling instability that may reach 4000 J/kg at times with temperatures in the 90s & dew points in the upper 70s to 80, leading to heat indices to +110 at times.

However, we will have capping & smokiness that will inhibit storms to some degree at times, even those complexes impacting parts of the area from the north in the "Ring of Fire".  If instability can fully be realized, then robust severe weather risk will develop. 

Greatest storm coverage will tend to be north & northeast of the viewing area.

Next Saturday, July 31 looks especially hot & oppressive right now with highs in the & dew points 80-82 with dangerous heat indices.  A complex of severe storms may evolve over southern Wisconsin, move southeastward & could impact the viewing area in the evening.  Severe risk would be robust IF cap & smoke are overcome fully here. 

Boiling ML CAPE up to 4200 J/kg along with us being on southwest edge of strong mid & upper jet winds in the evening does support robust severe risk when you take the strong, strong cap & smoke out of the picture.

Brief cool-down is possible after that with 70s to 80 before we heat up rapidly again with 90s & dew points to 80.

Same pattern should return with some storm complexes in the "Ring of Fire" flirting with us beyond August 5.

I am still thinking August will be a bit warmer & drier than normal overall, while September will be a bit cooler & drier than normal overall.

Mid-August could be very hot & humid with below normal rainfall, but late August looks cooler than normal.

October & November are trending warmer & drier than normal, while December is trending warmer & wetter than normal with below normal snowfall.

January looks warmer than normal overall at first, then colder than normal with above normal precipitation & normal snowfall.

February looks colder than normal with above normal precipitation & above normal snowfall.

The first half of March looks colder than normal with above normal precipitation & snowfall, followed by warmer than normal temperatures the second half of the month with no snowfall (but continued above normal precipitation).

This, as we see double La Nina (La Nina for two years in a row after brief neutral period this early to mid-summer).

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