July 20, 10:30 PM Weather Forecast Outlook

End to the Heat Wave Soon with Storms.

Posted: Jul 20, 2019 10:08 PM
Updated: Jul 20, 2019 11:19 PM

Highs today reached 91-97 with heat indices maxing at 102-116.

Lows tonight should run 75-80 overall.

Complex/bow of severe storms Iowa to Missouri should diminish, but its MCV will reach eastern Illinois by morning.

This may pop a few storms in our northwestern counties Sunday morning, then they should diminish.

The MCS will continue to pivot eastward with its outflow boundary & new storms should fire quickly around midday, form a line or bow & move southeastward, bringing a line of storms with the risk of scattered severe gusts midday to late afternoon for the area.

Locally-heavy, flooding rainfall is also possible, as well, given the tremendous amount of water to squeeze out of these storms with 75-80 dew points.

Water loading may result in a couple wet downbursts of especially high winds, otherwise, some cores of straight-line winds will occur in the area.

We are under MARGINAL RISK for severe, but we are certainly SLIGHT RISK-worthy & an upgrade to SLIGHT RISK seems possible in the next or following SPC convective outlooks.

It should then cool off nicely with some clearing to 60-66 tomorrow night!

The entire upcoming week looks dry, other than an isolated storm or two around Thursday as a weak front just skims by us (mainly affects New England).

Monday now looks like the coolest day of the week with 77-83 with lows Monday night of 54-58.

80s will dominate the rest of the week with near 90 by late week.  Multiple overnights will be in the 50s to 60.

Most of the days will feature low humidity & a lot of sunshine.

Next weekend currently looks dry with highs in the upper 80s to around 90 & lows in the 60s (with humid conditions developing), but storms are likely Monday July 29-Tuesday July 30, the best potential since......well what we get tomorrow.

After that, it looks comfortable for a while with highs in the 70s to lower 80s, lows in the 50s & 60s & some off & on shower/storm risk developing in early August.  Overall, early August looks cooler & wetter than normal.

I wouldn't be surprised if we see a late-season heat wave in late August with 90s for several days with higher humidity (as moist to wet soils return after wetter pattern) & drier weather returning.

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Much could change, but this is what preliminary data shows.  This is strictly analog & not based on any modeling at the present time.  That will come later.

Latest analog data trends suggest a diffuse double Nino winter ahead (albeit weak).  This looks like a second El Nino Modoki in a low solar pattern with considerable blocking pattern evolving, resulting in weather extremes, but a tendency for a colder & snowier than normal winter with ridging over Greenland & the Bering Sea to Alaska.

In fact, analog suggests a winter very similar to last year's of above normal precipitation & overall below normal temperatures, but extremes embedded with wild temperature rises & crashes with a lot of wind.

It looks like a winter like last year that shows some elements of La Nina embedded in the El Nino Modoki with the MJO once again being a big player that occasionally overrules the larger NAO, AO, PNA, PDO, Polar Vortex, Modoki pattern. 

This occurred in February last year when it appeared that we should have seen the January & March Arctic blasts in that month even more frequently (with lots of snow), but a trongly mild, wet mode of the MJO overruled that.  It was not a warm February, but the MJO helped to keep the worst of the Arctic air northwest of us & brought the Plains to western Great Lakes their snowiest February on record.  This was a pre-cursor to the very wet soil conditions of the spring.  Record warmth & dryness dominated the southeastern U.S. in February, typical of a La Nina, not an El Nino.

So, there are other players on the field that will overrule the cold, snowy tendency at times (even when the data & models say that it should be much, much colder).  However, the colder, snowier regime overall still seems reasonable after a warm, drier late fall to early winter.

March looks colder & wetter than normal again here.

As for April & May, I am just not able to go that far yet, given mixed signals seen in the analog data.  I will be able to dive into that part of spring later.

SO............

Fall-Winter-Early Spring 2019-20:

September:

Cooler & wetter than normal.

October:

Cooler & wetter than normal.

November:

Warmer & drier than normal with below normal snowfall.

December:

Warmer & drier than normal with below normal snowfall.

January:

Colder, wetter & snowier than normal.

February:

Warmer, wetter than normal with normal snowfall.

March: 

Colder, wetter & snowier than normal.

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Turning Muggy with Some Storms.
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