July 22, 1:30 PM Weather Forecast Update

Bit cooler & less humid weather, then another round of 90s.

Posted: Jul 22, 2020 12:59 PM
Updated: Jul 22, 2020 2:46 PM

Wow for many areas of the East, specifically the Mid-Atlantic, this is the 5th day of a significant heat wave with Heat Advisories to Excessive Heat Warnings.  Back on Sunday +100 occurred Ohio to Tennessee to Virginia to New York. 

Thankfully, we have been more in the "Ring of Fire" with bouts of storms rather being completely overtaken by the ridge.  The ridge will continue to contract & even areas east of us will cool some. 

Cold front will continue to pass through this afternoon to evening. 

All of the gray, low clouds we have will break up, but that means heating & a few spotty showers & storms are possible with 30% coverage afternoon-evening.  The risk of any severe weather will occur east & southeast of our area.

Highs should reach a the muggy 80s.

Some patchy fog is possible tonight (with lows in the 60s), followed by overall partly cloudy skies tomorrow with highs 82-88 with a nice northwest wind & a bit lower humidity.

Hotter weather returns Friday with sunshine after 60s & some patchy fog in the morning.  Highs of 86-91 are likely Friday with not much wind.  However, the humidity should remain in check.

Hot upper ridge with 90s overtakes the area this weekend.  Heat indices may reach or exceed 100.  A few isolated storms are possible, however with 20% coverage.

Meanwhile, potential tropical storm or hurricane may make landfall in Texas at the end of the week.

Showers & storms are likely late Monday-Monday night to Tuesday as a cold front moves through.  Right now, any severe weather risk looks very isolated.

It is more garden-variety summer storms.  We will monitor, however.  This could change.

Then, there are trends to take the remnants of the tropical system & move it into the Plains where it could deepen into a substantial surface low.

This low would push warm front back northward, ushering heat & humidity after a cool-down & bring rain & storms around July 31-August 1.

The hot, oppressive, unstable environment & the increasing wind fields & shear with the system actually show a pretty good severe weather risk for the area.  Preliminary parameters are on the order SLIGHT to ENHANCED RISK over the area.  However, it is still a long way out & much could change, so stayed tuned.

Meanwhile, the tropical activity will really amp up in the southern Gulf & Caribbean.  The Saharan dust is no longer a factor & the MJO will be in a very favorable phase for tropical storms & hurricanes.

The trend is to pull multiple systems into the Gulf of Mexico with eyes on Texas to Louisiana for landfalls.

This corridor of landfalls would certainly increase our odds of getting heavier rainfall from tropical systems.

We will monitor.  This is a trend in early August.

Otherwise, we just look to be dominated by very warm to hot, muggy weather.

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