Big, hot upper ridge expands east & southeastward to bring us hot weather, but also very smoky skies this week to next weekend & beyond.
Wildfire smoke will get especially thick Tuesday into Wednesday & then thin just a hair before thickening up a lot next weekend.
This smoke will act as an overcast, reflecting sunlight off of the sooty smoke. This will keep our temperature 5-6 cooler than what it would be with a smokeless sky with this hot, hot ridge.
Temperatures may still reach +106 in the Dakotas to Minnesota & Nebraska even with the smoke, however.
As for our humidity, it will be tolerable Monday-Tuesday. Highs of 85-90 & 86-91 are expected, respectively. Heat indices of 85-92 are expected Monday & 87-94.
Wednesday highs of 88-94 are expected with heat indices 94-102.
Thursday should feature 88-94 with heat indices 94-102.
A "Ring of Fire" "Ridge Rider" storm complex may clip us Friday as multiple storms complexes pivot around the periphery of the hot upper ridge from Manitoba to Ohio & West Virginia.
It is a good set-up for a derecho in that swath next weekend to the following week.
Right now, most of these complexes will pass northeast & north of our area, but we will monitor very closely. Slight deviation in the ridge & we have a severe "Ridge Rider" or a Progressive Derecho.
The peak of the humidity & heat should begin to arrive at the end of next weekend to that following week as dew points surge to the mid 70s to 80 as high, tropical dew points get trapped & pool under our cap. Heat indices may reach 100-114. Highs of 91-96 are likely.
We will watch closely the "Ring of Fire" "Ridge Riders".
A wave of storms is likely to start August, ushering in a cool-down. This will be great relief from chronic heat & humidity.
August overall is trending warmer than normal with below normal rainfall.