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July 17, 11 PM Weather Forecast Update

Latest on the intense head ahead.

Posted: Jul 17, 2019 9:07 PM
Updated: Jul 17, 2019 10:56 PM

Highs today ran 86-91 with peak heat indices 92-104 with a few isolated showers & storms.

Excessive Heat Warning is up area-wide Thursday-Sunday.

Heat is the #1 killer in the Lower 48 over an average of 10 & 30 years.  Even in 2018 it was the #1 killer. 

Flood consistently rank second.

Usually tornadoes rank third, but last year saw a lack of tornadoes, so it was much lower in fatalities.

This is a reminder to not take the heat lightly. 

Take care of your pets, always check the back seat when you leave your car & limit time outdoor, especially in the hottest time of day.  Increase your intake of non-caffeinated liquids as well.

Latest data is in & it looks like 94-100 highs tomorrow to Saturday & 93-97 Sunday.

Heat indices will run 105-114 for the period.  Overnight lows will run 75-80.

Excessive Heat Watches, Warnings & Heat Advisories are lined up from the Plains (small area of New Mexico, too), all the way to the East Coast.

Presently, once-intense MCS (not reached derecho criteria yet) is gusting out over southern Illinois to western Kentucky & southeastern Missouri.  Gusts of up to 60 mph are still likely occurring with it.

It is a great set-up for a couple of derechos north & northeast of our region Thursday-Saturday.

If you know of any family on vacations that involve camping &/or hiking outdoors from Minnesota, Wisconsin & Michigan to Ontario, then New England, make them weather-aware if you can!

I know many who go camping or on fishing trips in northern Minnesota & Wisconsin to Ontario this time of year.  These derechos with the dense forests make camping extra-dangerous.  These may also affects areas at night, as well.

Here, a few storms are possible part of tonight (especially late) & tomorrow morning associated with the leading edge of the expansion of the upper ridge, outflow boundary from MCS to our southwest & other storms northeast of us today AND the old remnants MCV from that MCS passing nearby.

Then, we go extremely capped by tomorrow afternoon, shutting everything off.  Anything left storm-wise will likely collapse by tomorrow afternoon.  I did go for 30% coverage of storms for this late night-morning to midday period.

However, there may be a severe MCS tracking on the periphery of the intense heat just northeast of our area.  We will monitor quickly in case it makes just a slight turn to the south to part of the area & overcomes the cap.  This doesn't look to be the case, but I have seen it happen before when it is least expected in these situations.

Friday looks completely capped, dry & mostly sunny.

Saturday looks very capped, too.

Tomorrow MCS just to our north & northeast & the new one developing North & South Dakota to Minnesota:

MCSs/derechos blowing in the "Ring of Fire" Friday-Friday night:

Derecho (long-lived, long-tracking MCS or complex of severe storms with widespread significant damaging wind) is possible South Dakota to Ontario, then northern New England Saturday to Saturday night on periphery of intenst heat wave.

As ridge begins to flatten, MCSs Colorado to Nebraska & Nebraska to Iowa & northern Illinois/southern Wisconsin will march eastward on the ridge periphery with damaging wind threat.

We may have a severe weather threat Sunday.  It looks SLIGHT RISK-worthy with wind threat as line of storms with a developing MCS may move through the area in the afternoon.

This will occur with a decent cold front that will knock us back to 82-89 for highs early next week with lows 56-63.

It also looks less humid.

There are signs it may briefly heat up some Thursday & turn a bit more humid with highs 87-91 ahead of a secondary cold front.

A broken line of storms may form on this front & pass through in the afternoon-evening.  Isolated severe weather could occur (wind, hail).

Behind that, next Friday looks good with mostly sunny skies & highs 77-82 with lows 52-56.

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