July 16, 11:30 AM Weather Forecast Update

Hot, Rather Dry July with a Substantial Heat Wave Ahead.

Posted: Jul 16, 2019 10:13 AM
Updated: Jul 16, 2019 11:39 AM

Areas of rainfall deficits have developed for July in the viewing area.

The driest area is over Warren, Fountain, parts of Montgomery, Tippecanoe & also southern Miami to part of Howard counties.

Northeast Fountain, northwest Montgomery & southwest Tippecanoe counties have had the least amount of rainfall for July with 0.10" or less.

At our WLFI observation site, we have recorded just 0.26" for July & that is the only measurable rainfall that has occurred since June 24.

DRIEST LOCATIONS IN THE AREA WITH OBSERVERS (July 1-16..................most of these areas have had these amounts since June 24):

0.00" 2 Miles Southeast of 26 & Lindberg

0.00" 2 Miles East of Attica

Trace Attica

Trace 2 Miles Northwest of Linden

Trace Linden

Trace 1 Mile South of Pine Village

0.01" 2 Miles South of Montmorenci

0.02" 4 Miles Southeast of Pine Village

0.04" 3 Miles South-Southeast of Montmorenci

0.07" 2 Miles Southwest of West Point

0.20" 1 Mile East of US 231/28 at Romney

There is considerable crop stress developing in these areas due to shallow-rooting of the corn & soybeans due to wetter soil conditions at planting & after germination.  The roots did not have to work down deeply due to abundant & excess soil moisture.  Now, flash dryness is resulting in sudden water deprivation.  There is water stored in the soil, but it is now occurring out of the shallow root zone & topsoils are dry.

The wettest pocket in the entire viewing area for July, so far, is near Rensselaer, where 4-6" of rainfall has occurred.

Note the greens & blues in our area for this first half of July showing 1" or less of rainfall.

Other unusually dry areas for July are over much of Michigan & northern Wisconsin & southwestern Iowa & northwestern Ohio.

Parts of Missouri & areas from Nebraska to the Dakotas, Minnesota to Montana (& a pocket in western Tennessee) have been unusually wet in July.

This is reminiscent of July 1995.

After a very wet spring with a very late planting, a hodge-podge of very wet & very dry areas developed in July.

An extreme upper ridge developed in mid July with record heat & heat indices in a deadly heat wave.

Pockets of very wet soil led to evaporation & very high dew points.  However, pockets of very dry soil led to enhancement of the heat.  There were areas with tasseling, actively-growing corn & then areas with bare brown fields that were never planted, but had been sprayed.  One enhances the dew points (corn), the other enhances the heat (brown fields).

This, with the heat also working from the top down with the sinking air of the ridge, led to not only high temperatures of 95-108 over the Midwest, but heat indices of 110-128.

Wind at night & high dew points led to exceptionally warm nights with lows of 75-81 in rural areas & 82-86 in urban zones.

The upcoming heat wave is similar, but does not look quite as bad as 1995 presently.

Friday & Saturday heat indices will easily get to 105-110 in the viewing area, but some locations may see them get as high as 115 (over wetter soils & areas that have more mature corn & lush vegetation growing around them).

Note the area of heat indices to +115 on Saturday in Virginia as the intense heat moves over wetter soils & more lush vegetation from recent rainfall.

Actual air temperatures of 95-100 are expected for several days.

Only an isolated storm or two is possible Saturday-Sunday.

In the meantime, remnants of Barry nearby will bring scattered showers/storms to the area this afternoon-evening.

An isolated severe storm or two cannot be ruled out with brief, weak tornado risk & risk of a random, isolated wet downburst.

Given the tropical airmass, locally-heavy rainfall is also possible.

A couple isolated storms are possible Wednesday, otherwise it looks dry, as does Thursday.

It will begin to heat up with 88-94 Wednesday & 93-97 Thursday.

Heat indices will run 96-105 & 102-110, respectively.

An MCS with severe weather risk will begin to cut the heat Monday, though we may not completely get rid of the heat for a few days after.  This overall cooler, wetter pattern should hang around into early August.

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Warmer Tuesday With Chances For Scattered Storms and Rain
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