July 15, 1:45 PM Weather Forecast Update

Here is your latest forecast update regarding the Barry remnants, the heat wave & cooler, wetter weather down the road.

Posted: Jul 15, 2019 1:34 PM
Updated: Jul 15, 2019 4:19 PM

High cirrus shield (& eventual lowering & thickening to altostratus with altocumulus) will continue to move northward & overspread area this evening-tonight from south ot north.

This will occur as the remnants of Barry continue to migrate northeastward.

Ahead of the thicker part of the veil of thickening high clouds, there is considerable sinking air. 

This sinking & slightly drying of the air (dew points currently 64-70, rather than 70-75) is leading to temperatures already at 85-91 over the area as of 1:30 p.m.

Around 90 to the mid 90s will be the highs today with heat indices lower 90s to 102.

On an old outflow boundary from some storms yesterday, potential is there for a few showers & storms to pop as the flow around Barry & flow north of that boundary converges some.

This will occur north of the sinking air on the periphery of the Barry remnants, most likely in the northern to northeastern part of the viewing area.

Center of the Barry remnants are in west-central Arkansas while an area of steady rainfall is moving northeastward through southern Illinois & southwestern Indiana.

After potentially a few spotty showers/storms with a line of cumulus clouds in the north & northeast late this afternoon-this evening, this band & the thickening clouds preceding it will arrive tonight.

It will be weakening, but showers are likely overnight from this.

It appears that 0.08-0.25" of rainfall is likely from it over the ara.

Then, sun should appear tomorrow & cumulus towers go up.

As a result, scattered storms will pop with around 45% coverage.

Best risk of a brief, weak tornado is east & southeast of our area, but the risk is not zero here.  We will monitor.

A seemingly random, isolated severe gust is possible.

Some locally-heavy downpours are likely here, but rainfall totals will vary greatly over the area with some areas only seeing a trace or nothing to a few select locations getting a 2" downpour.

It still looks like very hot, intense upper ridge will settle over the central & eastern U.S. late week through the weekend.

Multiple locations over the Midwest & East will see their first +100 actual air temperatures since 2012.

Some areas here will be very close to or even reach 100 at times.

Heat indices of 106-114 are likely.

Heat Advisories & Excessive Heat Warnings will likely be put out for the area.

Highs will tend to run 94-100 Thursday-Sunday with overnight lows at 75-80.

This heat wave may be similar, in some respects, to the 1995 & 2012 heat waves for major cities in the eastern U.S., resulting in elevated danger due to urban heat islands. 

Chicago, D.C., New York, Detroit could all hit, exceed or at least be very close to 100 for the actual air temperature.

On Friday &/or Saturday night(s), with strong southwest winds from Missouri & Iowa to Illinois, record high low temperatures are likely in a broad zone with lows of only 80-83, which will be close to all-time record high low temperatures in some of these more rural locations from northern Illinois, through Missouri & southern Iowa.

Temperature anomalies & readings around Friday & Saturday at 1 a.m. & 1 p.m.:

A couple/few isolated storms may pop through the cap, but it may be a severe MCS that brings higher storm potential & severe risk Monday night or Tuesday.

This will cut the heat some, but not a huge amount.

We will have to wait for end of the month through early August for the cooler, wetter pattern to settle in.

Article Comments

West Lafayette
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Summer-like weather continues.
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