July 15, 11:45 PM Weather Forecast Update

Heat Wave Ahead.

Posted: Jul 16, 2019 10:23 PM
Updated: Jul 17, 2019 2:15 PM

Highs today ran 82-88 with high dew points in the 70s with a scattering of showers & storms with around 50% coverage (all associated with the remnants of what was once low-end Category 1 Hurricane Barry.

Rainfall was highly-variable a lot of real estate saw little/no rainfall, while a few places saw up to 2".

0.20" fell here at the television station in West Lafayette, bringing our total since June 26 up to 0.46". 

Heat is the story from here on out.  88-93 tomorrow will give way to 95-100 late week & weekend with very warm, sultry nights of 75-80.

Heat indices tomorrow of 96-100 will give way to 102-110 Thursday & 106-114 Friday-Sunday.

+95 for much of the area for four days will be the longest such stretch since 2012.

West Lafayette 4-day or longer +95 stretches since 1940 are below.

+95-degree days tend to occur in 2s or 3s or singly as one day usually (per recent time)..........4 or more days in a row has been relatively rare since the 1950s. 

There were periods in 1945, 1952, 1954, 1955, 1963, 1966, 1967, 1970, 1971, 1974, 1997, 1999 that were close, but didn't quite make the cut, missing the threshold by one day.

Even July 13-15, 1954 saw highs of 101, 100, 106, but didn't make the cut as the high was just 90 in July 12 & 82 on July 16.

1. July 4-7, 2012

2.  July 19-23, 2011

3.  September 2-5, 2010

4.  July 13-16, 1995

5.  July 15-18, 1988

6.  July 5-9, 1988

7.  July 14-23, 1983

8.  July 28-31, 1983

9.  July 14-16, 1980

10. July 4-7, 1977

11. August 31-September 3, 1953

12.  July 1-5, 1949

13.  August 24-29, 1948

14.  August 19-24, 1947

15.  August 3-6, 1947

16.  August 9-13, 1944

17.  July 25-August 1, 1941

18.  August 12-17, 1940

19.  July 24-31, 1940

An isolated shower/storm or two could pop tomorrow-Thursday & possible Saturday-Sunday.  As for the weekend, despite a strong cap, +4000 J/kg ML CAPE means boiling instability.  Remnant gravity wave from MCS/derechos north of us & perhaps a random outflow boundary may serve as a bit of a trigger.

One isolated storm in an environment like that would mean isolated, random wet downburst risk from a pulse storm before it collapses.

These are the storms that show up for miles & miles as a towering cumulonimbus in an otherwise clear sky!

Example:

Severe storms clusters, even a progressive derecho or two is possible the Dakotas to Ontario & northern New England Thursday to Sunday on the periphery of this intense heat wave.

A severe MCS may impact our area Monday late morning-midday with a wind threat.  Timing is in some question as some data suggests this passing Sunday instead of Monday.  I am leaning more on Monday right now.

Cooler weather will arrive Tuesday-Wednesday with highs in the mid 80s & lows near 60 with mostly sunny skies & lower humidity.

A stair-step down to the cooler, wetter pattern will occur as we approach, & move into, early August.

Article Comments

West Lafayette
Clear
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Hi: 59° Lo: 40°
Feels Like: 50°
Kokomo
Clear
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Hi: 58° Lo: 37°
Feels Like: 48°
Rensselaer
Clear
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Hi: 56° Lo: 37°
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Fowler
Clear
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Hi: 57° Lo: 39°
Feels Like: 45°
Williamsport
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Feels Like: 50°
Crawfordsville
Clear
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Hi: 61° Lo: 41°
Feels Like: 45°
Frankfort
Scattered Clouds
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Hi: 59° Lo: 38°
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Delphi
Clear
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Hi: 58° Lo: 38°
Feels Like: 46°
Monticello
Clear
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Hi: 57° Lo: 38°
Feels Like: 46°
Logansport
Clear
43° wxIcon
Hi: 56° Lo: 36°
Feels Like: 43°
Warmer Tuesday With Chances For Scattered Storms and Rain
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