July 15, 10:45 PM Weather Forecast Update

Excessive Heat Watches lining up just west of the area.....we are next. Also, some scattered showers & storms Tuesday.

Posted: Jul 15, 2019 9:10 PM
Updated: Jul 15, 2019 11:14 PM

Highs today reached 86-93 with heat indices 91-97.

A band of some enhanced warming with highs 90-93 occurred with sinking air on the periphery of the Barry remnant's cloud shield.

The sinking air & mixing dropped the humidity, especially in that Fowler-Delphi, Frankfort-Kokomo band.

Outside of that in our northeastern & northern areas, we saw some cumulus form in a line with couple of isolated showers.

Some spotty showers & an isolated storm or two is possible tonight-tomorrow morning as some of the spotty bands from the leftovers of Barry spin northward.

After lulling, some sun & the heating will allow for scattered storms to pop in the afternoon.

Rainfall will be variable with some places seeing none little & others getting a quick +2" torrential, flooding downpour.

An isolated severe storm or two is possible with brief, weak tornado risk & risk of a brief, random severe gust.

Highs of 86-90 are likely with heat indices of 91-100 after morning lows of 70-73. 

Weak cold front to the north will push the Barry remnants out quickly, so it should all wind down tomorrow night.

Front will wash out, as hot ridging overtakes it Wednesday.

However, still can't rule out a couple/few isolated storms Wednesday with highs 88-94.

Heat indices will run 97-105.

Intense heat will already be building into Iowa & Illinois Wednesday.

Excessive Heat Watches are lining up west of us for the upcoming heat wave.  A new batch of them will likely go out tomorrow & Wednesday farther eastward (including our area).

Late week to the weekend heat indices of 106-114 are likely for our area with highs peaking for the Thursday-Sunday period at 95-100.

We are in store for the longest stretch of +95 heat in 7 years.  A few select places may just nudge 100.  One or two places nudged it in late May 2018 for record heat, but you really have to go back to 2012 to find such a longer duration of such heat.

Most spurts of +95 since 2012 have only been a day to three days, though there have been much longer spurts of 92-95 over much of the area.

Widespread heat will dominate from the central Plains to the East Coast.

Many locations will see 100 or +100.  This bears some resemblance to the July 1995 heat wave.  100 is possible in Chicago, 105 D.C., 102 New York, 100 Detroit, 102 Des Moines.  Pockets that have wet soils & lush vegetation from recent storms will see extra-high dew points resulting in localized extreme heat indices to 120.

This will be a particularly dangerous heat wave due to the number of major population centers with such high temperatures day & night (with high humidity).

Friday & Saturday nights look especially warm from northern Missouri to Iowa & northern Illinois at 80-83 for lows (record warm overnight lows).  Here, lows of 75-80 will occur here.

This is a good pattern (with "Ring of Fire") for progressive derechos north of us.  One may track from South Dakota to Ontario & northern New England Friday.

There could be a second one nearby that area Saturday.

Note the widespread 105-110 heat indices here in this Saturday projection.  Note the +110 pocket in our southwestern counties of Warren, Fountain & Montgomery counties.

I do think areas of 110-114 heat indices will occur over the pockets of wettest soils in the area.

7 a.m. temperatures Saturday morning are very impressive for being so warm!

Given +4000 J/kg ML boiling pot CAPE under a cap Thursday-Friday may begin to break enough for a couple isolated storms to bust through Saturday-Sunday.

If they do, they may pulse up & go severe with downburst & hail risk, but then collapse as they battle capping & lack of dynamics.

An MCS or complex of storms with possible squall line may impact area Monday either early morning or in the early afternoon.  Severe weather could occur (wind).

Heat may be tempered Monday-Tuesday.  It may try to come back, but thinking we will grow increasingly cooler & wetter with time as we exit July & move into early August.

Much more comfortable weather will return in early August.

West Lafayette
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Kokomo
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Rensselaer
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Williamsport
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Crawfordsville
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Frankfort
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Delphi
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Monticello
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Logansport
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