July 15, 1 PM Weather Forecast Update

SLIGHT RISK or Level 2 risk of severe weather for a good chunk of the viewing area this evening.

Posted: Jul 15, 2021 12:52 PM
Updated: Jul 15, 2021 2:48 PM

Temperatures are 82-89 currently with dew points muggy to oppressive at 72-78. 

Heat indices are running 88-101.

A good chunk of the viewing area is under a SLIGHT RISK or Level 2 of 5 for severe weather this evening.

The rest of the area is MARGINAL RISK or Level 1 of 5.

A Severe T'Storm Watch is possible for part of the viewing area by late afternoon.

Mode will be multi-cells & multi-cell cluster(s) morphing into a beefy, thick loosely or semi-organize line in the area as we will be on the southern periphery of up to 35 knots of Effective Bulk Shear.  Also, little mini MCV/perturbation is noted approaching western Illinois, which will help to serve as a trigger for storms.

That with boiling CAPE, translates to main threat as a couple to few severe gusts.

However, outflow boundary (albeit diffuse) will be laid up over the area.  A slight wind deviation from south to southwest in the low levels along that boundary with the Bulk Shear with some potential smoke in lower levels compared to yesterday (as it mixes down) means that there will be the risk of an isolated brief EF0-EF1 tornado.

Also, CAPE will be concentrated in the low levels with low LCLs (cloud bases) with tropical dew points of 74-78.

This, & any smoke in that layer would make it easier for brief, weak tornado spin-up.

Risk would be in the 5 pm-11 pm time frame.  Although a few cells will pop as early as 2-2:30 p.m., severe risk is more in that 5-11 time frame.

Scattered showers & storms are likely off & on Friday, especially in the afternoon-evening.

It would not suprise me to see a MARGINAL RISK or Level 1 of 5 risk of severe weather hoisted up for the southeastern half of the viewing area (Peru to Lafayette to near Veedersburg).  This would occur in the 5-8 pm time frame.

Some pockets of locally-heavy rainfall are possible this evening & tomorrow.

A couple showers/storms are possible Saturday, otherwise it looks like sun/clouds with wind turning to the northwest with 80s & dew points in the still-humid (but not muggy or oppressive) mid to upper 60s.

It is a drier pattern Sunday through next week with 80s & 90s for highs with dew points in the humid to muggy 60s to 70s. 

We will watch for a "Ring of Fire" "Ridge Rider" or two for the rest of July to very early August.  Otherwise, it is quite dry & hot.

West Lafayette
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Rensselaer
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Williamsport
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Crawfordsville
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Frankfort
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Monticello
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Logansport
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A very cold morning followed by a cloudy and cold afternoon
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