July 14, 5 PM Weather Forecast Update

Some storms, then drying trend...

Posted: Jul 14, 2021 1:04 PM
Updated: Jul 14, 2021 4:31 PM

After highs yesterday of 78-84 (with humid to muggy dew points) & lows of 63-69 this morning (with patchy fog), highs today have reached 82-88 (so far as of 4:30 pm) with heat indices 86-96.

Smoky skies continue in the area with the sun dimmed amidst some cumulus clouds.

With a few clouds & the smoke tonight, lows will run in the muggy 70-75 range with a light southwest breeze.

Some severe storms to our north will weaken as they approach northern Illinois.

The outflow boundary from these storms will reach a Winamac to Fowler line by 9 a.m., then migrate back northward with strong southwest flow.

It will be a breezy to windy Thursday with southwest winds 20-32 mph with muggy to oppressive dew points 73-78 pooling in the area.

This, with highs 87-92, means heat indices may reach 96-106.

Thick smoke will thin a bit in the afternoon with partly cloudy skies.

Loosely-organized clusters of multi-cell storms & a perhaps an embedded beefy line segment are possible Thursday evening-night.

There is the risk of a couple severe storms in the 5:30 p.m. to 11 p.m. time frame.

Threat would be a couple of severe gusts. 

Locally-heavy rainfall is possible given the very high dew points & high rainfall rates from any storm.

Risk is MARGINAL from SPC or Level 1 of 5 meaning "isolated severe storms".  This is very near the cusp of SLIGHT RISK or Level 2, but it appears some smoke cutting mid-level lapse rate some & lackluster convergence along outflow boundary may limit the best storm organization.

Nonetheless, there will be a lot of boiling low-level CAPE & the low-level lapse rates look decent.

Off & on scattered showers & storms are expected Thursday night through Friday with breaks in-between.

I would not surprise me to see a MARGINAL RISK or Level 1 risk of severe weather for the southeast half of the viewing area as we heat up with muggy dew points to the 80s Friday (dew points 73-77).  Some SLIGHT RISK (Level 2 or 5) may be painted southeast to east of our area.

Locally-heavy rainfall is also possible.

This will all occur as a couple of pronounced MCVs pivot through Illinois.

By Friday night, rainfall totals should vary from 0.60-3" over the area.  A couple isolated +3" amounts are possible.

As for Saturday, a couple storms are possible, otherwise it looks partly cloudy with southwest winds 20-30 mph & highs 85-90 with heat indices 88-95.

More widespread storm development & severe weather risk (SLIGHT RISK or Level 2 or 5) should stay south, southwest, southeast & east to northeast of our area (as two MCVs form deepening, rather strong surface low over Lake Michigan).

We then look drier with very warm to hot, humid weather next week as more thick wildfire smoke rolls in, dimming the sun.

We may see a "Ring of Fire" "Ridge Rider" round of storms try to impact the area at some point at the end of next week &/or that next weekend (July 24-25).  We will monitor.

Otherwise, it is a pretty hot, drier pattern right up to the start of August after Friday.

There are still signs of some decent cool-down for a time in early August with highs 77-82 & lows in the 50s.

45

West Lafayette
Clear
29° wxIcon
Hi: 37° Lo: 20°
Feels Like: 21°
Kokomo
Mostly Cloudy
29° wxIcon
Hi: 36° Lo: 20°
Feels Like: 18°
Rensselaer
Partly Cloudy
30° wxIcon
Hi: 34° Lo: 19°
Feels Like: 19°
Fowler
Clear
29° wxIcon
Hi: 36° Lo: 18°
Feels Like: 21°
Williamsport
Clear
31° wxIcon
Hi: 38° Lo: 19°
Feels Like: 22°
Crawfordsville
Clear
30° wxIcon
Hi: 39° Lo: 19°
Feels Like: 19°
Frankfort
Partly Cloudy
30° wxIcon
Hi: 37° Lo: 19°
Feels Like: 19°
Delphi
Partly Cloudy
30° wxIcon
Hi: 36° Lo: 20°
Feels Like: 21°
Monticello
Partly Cloudy
30° wxIcon
Hi: 35° Lo: 20°
Feels Like: 21°
Logansport
Partly Cloudy
28° wxIcon
Hi: 35° Lo: 20°
Feels Like: 18°
Decreasing clouds this afternoon with slightly warmer temperatures
WLFI Temps
WLFI Planner

Indiana Coronavirus Cases

Data is updated nightly.

Cases: 1134898

Reported Deaths: 17829
CountyCasesDeaths
Marion1473912256
Lake735981260
Allen68335891
Hamilton51957489
St. Joseph50677652
Elkhart40767548
Vanderburgh35026498
Tippecanoe31302278
Johnson28050467
Hendricks26647387
Porter26093391
Madison21380461
Clark20446279
Vigo19290312
LaPorte17486266
Delaware17053306
Howard16980315
Monroe16829220
Kosciusko14525167
Hancock13288186
Bartholomew13229191
Warrick12369191
Grant12243249
Wayne12243271
Floyd12134227
Morgan10571195
Boone10008125
Noble9460123
Marshall9322147
Henry9286170
Dearborn9094102
Dubois8917142
Shelby8437131
Cass8280128
Lawrence8159187
DeKalb7964109
Jackson781793
Huntington7792118
Montgomery7239123
Gibson7203118
Harrison7062100
Knox6988116
Steuben680189
Miami6693114
Whitley669261
Putnam652586
Wabash6353113
Clinton634980
Jasper625792
Jefferson5979105
Ripley567394
Adams548781
Daviess5141119
Scott499680
Wells4934107
White488270
Greene4772102
Clay470162
Decatur4678111
Fayette465298
Jennings458967
LaGrange436591
Posey413844
Randolph4023107
Washington394756
Fountain383265
Fulton369074
Spencer366448
Starke362874
Owen359677
Sullivan352455
Jay338151
Orange336473
Rush315633
Carroll302339
Franklin295844
Perry294553
Vermillion287358
Tipton253967
Parke252531
Pike252244
Blackford226044
Pulaski214360
Newton185752
Brown181550
Benton171918
Crawford171229
Martin153519
Switzerland149612
Warren138717
Union125716
Ohio93313
Unassigned0599

COVID-19 Important links and resources

As the spread of COVID-19, or as it's more commonly known as the coronavirus continues, this page will serve as your one-stop for the resources you need to stay informed and to keep you and your family safe. CLICK HERE

Closings related to the prevention of the COVID-19 can be found on our Closings page.

Community Events