Storms are possible Thursday evening (with MARGINAL to SLIGHT RISK parameters or Level 1 to 2 of 5), followed by some showers & storms Friday, then a couple/few showers/storms bubbling up Saturday.
After that, there is no good potential of rainfall (+30% coverage) out to August 2, except on around July 26 ("Ring of Fire" "Ridge Rider" with some severe weather risk).
The hottest weather of July is shaping up for July 28-31 as the core of hot, hot upper ridge coincides with thinning of the smoke to some degree in our area. This means 90s to 100 cannot be ruled out with heat indices +107.
So, Wednesday will feature thick wild fire smoke (which will dim the sun) that will knock our temperature back a good 5 degrees to 87-92 (rather than around 93-98). However, heat indices will run 95-101, given wet soils & transpiration from the lush vegetation. Take away the thick smoke reflecting away the sunlight & make the soils much drier & the 5,000' temperatures support torrid highs to near 100 as upper ridge expands over our area.
Winds will be from the southwest at 12-23 mph after some patchy fog in the morning & lows 67-71.
Severe storms flare in clusters & some lines northwest of our area Wednesday to Wednesday night in thinning (but formerly very thick & deep) smoke plume.
Main trigger is the surface low & upper trough (with an MCV) digging into periphery of hot upper ridge with 35 knots of Bulk Shear & +60-knot mid-level jet streak.
However, they then weaken with southeastward progression toward southeastern Iowa to northern Illinois as these dynamics lift toward Ontario.
Thick smoke & southwest wind will keep lows at 72-76 Wednesday night with muggy conditions.
What is left will be some scattered showers & thunder from northern Missouri to northern Illinois & Michigan by noon Thursday.
Thursday looks partly cloudy & windy with southwest winds 20-32 mph & highs 87-93 with heat indices 95-103
Smoke will tend to cap everything through the day until evening.
Some leftover scattered showers & thunder will reside from northern Missouri to northern Illinois & Michigan at noon Thursday.
Storm coverage may be kept at 45-50% in clusters & line segments, rather than a solid, solid squall line, due to the smoke.
So, a couple of clusters &/or beefy line segments of storms are possible here. Threat would be wind.
Once they pop & pass through in the severe weather risk duration would be 5:30 pm-10 pm.
They should weaken rapidly with southward progression around & after 10 pm.
Triggers will be outflow boundary from storms the night before & approaching MCV out of MIssouri to Illinois along weak cold front as ridge flattens & then begins to migrate back to the west & northwest.
Complex of severe storms over Kansas Thursday night-Friday morning will produced very well-pronounced MCV that will pivot east-northeastward during Friday.
This will likely bring severe storms to southern Illinois, Indiana & western Kentucky & spread some showers & a few storms into our area by Friday afternoon-evening.
Highs will run 79-84 (though it will still be rather muggy) given all of the cloudiness in our area & the completely cloudy skies Friday afternoon with wind shift to the northeast.
In the hot 90s, unstable air south of our area, robust instability supports solid SLIGHT RISK parameters for severe weather.
Meanwhile, another complex (left side of image) of severe storms will be rolling through Nebraska Friday evening. That MCV may bring more severe weather to Missouri to far southern Indiana, Illinois & Kentucky to Tennessee & Arkansas Saturday.
Here, with weak front in the vicinity, we may pop a couple spotty showers/storms, otherwise it looks partly cloudy with smoke & highs 83-90 with heat indices 87-93.
Saturday-Wednesday, highs are dominated by 80s to 90 with lows in the 60s.
90 to the 90s are possible late next week to that following weekend.
Storms again are possible around July 26 with 90s given way to brief 80s.
Intense heat of 90s to 100 could occur as we end July & move into early August.
Trends are for a nice cool-down to highs in the 77-82 range around August 5-6 with lows in the 50s. This could last for several days before we heat up again.