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July 12, 11 PM Weather Forecast Update

Thick wildfire smoke & very warm to hot, muggy weather & some storms ahead.

Posted: Jul 12, 2021 1:27 PM
Updated: Jul 12, 2021 11:11 PM

It still looks like a double La Nina with second one in the Fall-Winter-Spring of 2021-22.  Watch for developing El Nino, however, in Winter 2022-23.

We had the La Nina last Fall through Spring, it went away late spring-summer (we are completely neutral right now), now we should be back to La Nina by Fall.

Pending complete analysis of the oceans & other planetary trends, this is very, very similar to what happening last year, it is just that we were in the La Nina last summer already & not neutral like we are now.

That could be playing a role in making it wetter overall here at the end of June & into July.

We have switched quickly to wetter weather.  In fact, in some areas, 90% of the total rainfall for the summer so far has occurred since June 25 (Summer is June-July-August).

At our WLFI site, we had not had much rainfall in later May to June with temperatures to the upper 90s & near 100, but since June 25, we have seen the bulk of our summer rainfall so far.

Current preliminary analysis suggests cooler September, but warmer than normal October, November & December with below normal snowfall, then much of the snowfall (ending up at or above normal) & cold for the winter would be after January 20 to about the end of February.

Overall winter precipitation looks to end up above normal after below normal precipitation September to December

At this point, early spring may be back again, followed by a summer with below normal temperatures & above normal rainfall in 2022.

Overall winter precipitation looks to end up above normal after below normal precipitation September to December.

I am going to do a lot of analog analysis & number crunching so I can have the first installment of the now to next Summer outlook up by July 26.

In the meantime, note the La Nina projected to re-emerge in chart below (less than -0.5):

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Thank you all for your rainfall reports!  They are very helpful!  Reports vary from 4" around Buck Creek & other parts of eastern Tippecanoe County to 3.50" in Camden in Carroll County.  Up to 3" has been reported southwest of Logansport.

Up to 3" was measured in Clinton County today with Randy on the eastside of Frankfort reporting 4" in the past 24 hours.

Doppler radar also estimates 3.5" near Wadena & just southeast of Goodland.

Other area saw very little/nothing, as you can see on the map below.  Rainfall varied greatly over small distances, but certainly that eastern Tippecanoe to Carroll to Cass corridor was the hardest hit.

South wind tomorrow morning will become west to west-southwest & increase to 15-25 mph in the afternoon.

It appears that core of low pressure/MCV combo will pivot through tonight-tomorrow morning (after one meso-low/MCV pivoted through today & another pivots through northeastern Illinois tonight).

That said, I have decided to put some scattered showers & a few storms in for later tonight & through tomorrow morning, then decrease them as capping & upper ridging increase tomorrow afternoon (& as MCV/low pivot away).

So, I will gradually increase rainfall coverage later tonight to 45% by mid- to late-morning Tuesday, then drop it off to 30% by early afternoon & 25% by evening.

There will be a lot of vorticity & shear with that MCV, so be aware of the risk of a funnel or two or brief EF0 tornado Tuesday morning to early afternoon.

I went for highs of 82-87 with dew points 72-76 early, decreasing to 65-70 in the afternoon-evening.

So, heat indices should peak at 86-93.  I cut them back from 91-97.

We will keep mention of some patchy fog in the forecast late tonight-early morning, though it will be more widespread & dense in Iowa & northwestern to central Illinois.

There is a massive area of thick wildfire smoke that will be on the move east & southeastward over the next couple of days.

It looks very thick here Wednesday.  It will be enough to greatly dim the sun, knock our temperature back 4-5 degrees & only enhance our cap.

So, rather than 93-98 with 106-115 heat indices, we are looking more like dim sun & 88-94 with 97-103 heat indices.

Meanwhile, it will be less thick northwest of our area, which will aid in getting that severe weather outbreak to get going.  Forcing should be enough to break through the smoky cap or lid there & reach the colder air aloft & well-mixed CAPE above & below the smoky cap.

This, after patchy fog & 68-73 in the morning.

, that severe weather oubreak will occur northwest of our area with ENHANCED RISK parameters showing up.

This is an area that needs the rain with Severe to Extreme Drought, but not the severe weather.  There are parts of Iowa, Minnesota to Wisconsin that have had just 10-15% of their normal rainfall since June 1.

Thick smoke will likely carry into Thursday with 70s for lows Wednesday night & 89-94 Thursday for highs.  Winds will be southwest & sky will be pale, gray to gold & smoky with dimmed sun.  Again, this will knock our temperature back.  The wet soils also help in knocking our temperature back, but we will be putting a lot of water vapor into the air as the heat evaporates the water & the vegetation transpires. 

Heat indices may run 96-104.

There is some question on when storms pass Thursday night or Friday.

There is now increasing incertainty on how many or how much storm action will develop given such thick, thick, capping smoke.  Although conditions show SLIGHT RISK parameters overall, the coverage of storms may dramatically drop if the smoke is especially thick.

Thoughts are also that storm tend to erupt in a big way (with an MCV) & stay south of our area Friday night-Saturday in smoke that is not as thick.

After that, there is just little rainfall for our area (except perhaps once around July 26 with round of storms) up to around July 31 seen. 

Capping wildfire smoke & upper ridging will tend to dominate.

Overall temperatures will be dominated by 80s July 17-22, followed by more in the way of 90s after that.

Widespread wildfire smoke will help to quell extreme heat in the Northern Plains & it appears this smoke will engulf the entire Lower 48 & move to as far east as Europe.  This shows you the magnitude of the Canadian & western U.S. to Alaska & now even Siberian wildfires.

In terms of the tropics, there is nothing screaming "extremely active!" until August.  MJO has just completely gone to the wayside with suddenly little or no effects.

West Lafayette
Partly Cloudy
77° wxIcon
Hi: 82° Lo: 53°
Feels Like: 79°
Kokomo
Partly Cloudy
76° wxIcon
Hi: 82° Lo: 53°
Feels Like: 76°
Rensselaer
Clear
73° wxIcon
Hi: 81° Lo: 50°
Feels Like: 73°
Fowler
Partly Cloudy
77° wxIcon
Hi: 80° Lo: 52°
Feels Like: 79°
Williamsport
Clear
77° wxIcon
Hi: 81° Lo: 53°
Feels Like: 78°
Crawfordsville
Partly Cloudy
75° wxIcon
Hi: 81° Lo: 53°
Feels Like: 75°
Frankfort
Partly Cloudy
75° wxIcon
Hi: 81° Lo: 53°
Feels Like: 75°
Delphi
Partly Cloudy
77° wxIcon
Hi: 82° Lo: 53°
Feels Like: 78°
Monticello
Partly Cloudy
77° wxIcon
Hi: 83° Lo: 54°
Feels Like: 78°
Logansport
Partly Cloudy
° wxIcon
Hi: 82° Lo: 52°
Feels Like: °
A sunny and mild Thursday on tap!
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