After spotty showers/storms this morning, it will turn hot & oppressive today with highs 89-95 with heat indices 99-111.
Scattered storms will pop late this afternoon & peak early this evening (they will take time to build to overcome some capping atop the cumulus & lack of great dynamics) as they tend to form two broken lines. Best coverage of rainfall will tend to set up south of Route 18.
Isolated severe gusts & even some hail are possible.
Entire area is under a MARGINAL RISK of severe weather.
SLIGHT RISK is shaping up more north of our area where the storms will organize better under stronger wind fields aloft.
These will be fueled largely by the intense heat & CAPE & some surface convergence along & ahead of the cold front.
Behind the cold front, after morning sun, towering cumulus bubble up all over the sky tomorrow.
A few isolated showers & t'showers are possible from these as a shortwave (in combination with a lake breeze front) moves through.
Winds will be from the northwest & north behind the front with highs 77-84 & lows of 55-60 tomorrow night as skies clear. Some patchy fog is also possible tomorrow night as winds go light to calm.
Dew points will still be humid at 65-70 before they drop to 57-64 in the evening.
Friday looks great with mostly sunny to sunny skies & highs 79-84 with more comfortable dew points of 56-61 with a northeast to north wind at 6-11 mph.
Next weekend up to Monday looks intensely hot with highs peaking at 92-97 with lows in the 70s. Heat indices will run 100-113.
Heat Advisories are possible.
Some storms are possible Saturday night as a cluster or complex skims by on the periphery of the intense heat.
Storms are possible next Thursday-Thursday night along a cold front. It is possible that the remnants of the tropical system from the Gulf get pulled up into our area that night. They may merge with a complex of storms over Iowa & Missouri, enhancing the rainfall.
It should all come through quickly, but locally-heavy rainfall is possible.
Intense heat should follow in a period in the July 20-28 time frame.