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July 1, 11 PM Weather Forecast Update

Cooler & drier weather, then potential heat wave, followed by "Ring of Fire" storms.....followed by a new look (based on the latest data) as far out as November.

Posted: Jul 1, 2021 5:56 PM
Updated: Jul 2, 2021 12:11 AM

June 2021 will do down as the third warmest on record for Greater Lafayette with the hottest temperatures measured in the viewing area since July 2012 or May 2018.

7-day rainfall totals have run 3-9".

A few reports of wind damage occurred over the June 24-July 1, but it was isolated on any day.  Brief EF1 & EF0 tornado occurred in Tippecanoe to Carroll counties & funnel cloud was reported (Earl Park).

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Northeast winds 10-25 mph & cumulus with some high clouds dominate Friday & Saturday with low humidity.  Friday highs should run 77-83 after lows 57-63.  Saturday should reach 81-85 after 56-61 Saturday night.

Warm front passes through Sunday morning with sunshine, southwest winds 15-25 mph by afternoon & highs 90-94.  Heat indices will run 93-99.

Monday looks hot & humid with southwest winds 20-30 mph & highs 91-97 with heat indices 96-106.  An isolated storm or two is possible.

Tuesday looks capped & hot with sunshine & 92-98 with heat indices of 100-110.  Southwest winds look strong at 20-30 mph.

Wednesday may feature a cirrus shield overriding the ridge from Wisconsin/Iowa storms which would dim the sun in the afternoon with the cumulus clouds.  Thus, I cut the high some.  It looks capped & hot & humid, however. 

As for Thursday, I kept POPs at 30%, but it does appear that a "Ring of Fire" "Ridge Rider or MCS may ride the ridge as it contracts a bit as upper trough swings through the Great Lakes.

Parameters suggest MARGINAL to SLIGHT RISK for severe.

The same thing applies to Friday or Saturday as the trajectory for an MCS or new development on outflow boundary from former MCS or an MCV triggers new storms.

It all depends on how much the upper trough causes the ridge to contract in regards to exact timing of storms & the overall temperature on those days.

We will continue to monitor.  Be aware of tweaks to the forecast.

7-day forecast:

Overall July 6-15 looks hotter than normal here with the horseshoe-shaped upper ridge pattern.

The underbelly will be cooler & wetter than normal with tropical activity, while the ridge core looks drier than normal.

However, if we can eek out a couple rounds of the ridge contracting to get "Ring of Fire" MCSs in there or MCS outflow boundary &/or MCS leftover MCVs in here, we will fair better in the rainfall department.

So far, we have faired much better rainfall-wise compared to areas west, northwest, north & northeast to east of here with widespread drought & heat waves & multiple days in the 100s.

That is a wildcard to the heat & overall hot, drier, ridgy pattern here.

August will cool to normal overall with time, it appears as hot upper ridge goes back to the Northwest & eastern Canada to New England.

Drier than normal regime is expected, unless we see tropical systems moving up into our area as they ramp up in August.

Same applies to September.  September overall looks a bit cooler than normal.

Trend by mid-August temperature-wise (compared to normal mean):

MJO will be more & more of an influencer of the weather over the next few weeks.

1, 2, 3 or 8 phases are needed for tropical action in the Atlantic Basin.  7, 6, 5 and 4 phases are a more supressed phase in the Atlantic Basin.  However, there is a pocket of better risk in the Caribbean in 5 & 6 that tends to pop storms & move toward Texas & Mexico to possibly south Florida. 

Phases promote the upper ridging here with above normal temperatures overall (doesn't mean we won't have a few cool-downs, but overall hotter & potentially intensely hot at times).

We should trend to Phase 8 in August with time, which promotes more tropical development in the Atlantic & overall is more robust pattern for tropical development.

October is trending warmer & drier than normal.

November looks warmer & drier than normal.

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A chilly start but scattered rain is possible tonight
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