4 of the last 6 days of been at least 90 at WLFI with a peak of 92. At the airport, it has been two, but the 4 have been 88-89.
Heat indices reached as high as 104 today in the area with overall highs 86-93.
I upped storm coverage to 35% Tuesday in the afternoon & evening. Weak front will be getting ever closer as ridge flattens & outflow boundary in the area with a bit less capping should support quite a few scattered storms.
Lack of good shear, dynamics & really focused MCV will limit storm organization, but they will try to gell into a broken messy line or two.
However, a couple/few isolated severe storms are possible as high CAPE & steep lapse rates promote strong updrafts. Threat would be wet downburst &/or some hail.
Storms should fade with loss of heating late tomorrow evening.
It looks muggy to oppressive with dew points 73-77.
Weak cold front will continue to drop southward.
Scattered storms are likely Wednesday. They will be rather pulsey & try to semi-organized into messy lines. An isolated severe storm or two is possible.
The humidity will be muggy to oppressive with dew points 74-78.
With front in the area (though stronger winds aloft for widespread, organized storm complexes will be well northwest, north & northeast of our area), storms will be a daily occurrence.
Numerous scattered storms are likely Thursday, especially in the afternoon & evening. They will tend to fade in the late evening-night, but they may try to organize into some messy broken lines for a bit.
Few isolated severe storms are possible along with locally-heavy rainfall.
Muggy to oppressive dew points of 74-78 are likely.
Storm coverage looks to peak at 60% in generally the 4-9 p.m. time frame & then they should wane.
Scattered storms are likely Friday with more ahead Saturday.
Storms may organize a bit more Saturday night &/or Sunday as an upper trough skims by with the weak front & some strenghtening wind fields aloft.
This may up our severe risk from MARGINAL to SLIGHT.
Monday looks dry with highs near 85 & lows near 65 with a slight drop in the humidity.
A much stronger upper trough & cold front will begin to set up mid to late next week.
With temperatures surging again to 88-93 with heat indices 97-111 (with dew points in the 70s), potential is there for multiple rounds of organized storms (MCSs) for the area.
These will not come from the northwest around a big ridge in the "Ring of Fire", but rather the west.............except Tuesday night.
One should pass in a weakening fashion along/north of a warm front Tuesday evening-night.
Another should pass Wednesday evening (with a squall line) with severe risk. Sure looks like SLIGHT TO ENHANCED parameters.
A squall line is also possible Thursday with severe risk. Looks like SLIGHT risk parameters there.
Overall cooler pattern should follow with persistent below normal temperatures through mid-July.
Heat, humidity should return in late July with more 90s.
Cooler than normal temperatures should dominate early August.
Overall rainfall through July & early August should average above normal.