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July 1, 11 PM Weather Forecast Update

Forecast emphasis is on the July 4th holiday.

Posted: Jul 1, 2019 9:41 PM
Updated: Jul 1, 2019 11:24 PM

4 of the last 6 days of been at least 90 at WLFI with a peak of 92.  At the airport, it has been two, but the 4 have been 88-89.

Heat indices reached as high as 104 today in the area with overall highs 86-93.

I upped storm coverage to 35% Tuesday in the afternoon & evening.  Weak front will be getting ever closer as ridge flattens & outflow boundary in the area with a bit less capping should support quite a few scattered storms.

Lack of good shear, dynamics & really focused MCV will limit storm organization, but they will try to gell into a broken messy line or two.

However, a couple/few isolated severe storms are possible as high CAPE & steep lapse rates promote strong updrafts.  Threat would be wet downburst &/or some hail. 

Storms should fade with loss of heating late tomorrow evening.

It looks muggy to oppressive with dew points 73-77.

Weak cold front will continue to drop southward.

Scattered storms are likely Wednesday.  They will be rather pulsey & try to semi-organized into messy lines.  An isolated severe storm or two is possible.

The humidity will be muggy to oppressive with dew points 74-78.

With front in the area (though stronger winds aloft for widespread, organized storm complexes will be well northwest, north & northeast of our area), storms will be a daily occurrence.

Numerous scattered storms are likely Thursday, especially in the afternoon & evening.  They will tend to fade in the late evening-night, but they may try to organize into some messy broken lines for a bit.

Few isolated severe storms are possible along with locally-heavy rainfall.

Muggy to oppressive dew points of 74-78 are likely.

Storm coverage looks to peak at 60% in generally the 4-9 p.m. time frame & then they should wane.

Scattered storms are likely Friday with more ahead Saturday.

Storms may organize a bit more Saturday night &/or Sunday as an upper trough skims by with the weak front & some strenghtening wind fields aloft.

This may up our severe risk from MARGINAL to SLIGHT.

Monday looks dry with highs near 85 & lows near 65 with a slight drop in the humidity.

A much stronger upper trough & cold front will begin to set up mid to late next week.

With temperatures surging again to 88-93 with heat indices 97-111 (with dew points in the 70s), potential is there for multiple rounds of organized storms (MCSs) for the area.

These will not come from the northwest around a big ridge in the "Ring of Fire", but rather the west.............except Tuesday night.

One should pass in a weakening fashion along/north of a warm front Tuesday evening-night.

Another should pass Wednesday evening (with a squall line) with severe risk.  Sure looks like SLIGHT TO ENHANCED parameters.

A squall line is also possible Thursday with severe risk.  Looks like SLIGHT risk parameters there.

Overall cooler pattern should follow with persistent below normal temperatures through mid-July.

Heat, humidity should return in late July with more 90s.

Cooler than normal temperatures should dominate early August.

Overall rainfall through July & early August should average above normal.

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