Highs today have run 88-94 with heat indices as high as 104 after morning lows of 68-74.
Some scattered pulsey storms with risk of locally-heavy, flooding rainfall & a random wet downburst &/or brief hail are occurring generally along a Brook to Remington to Monticello to Flora to Russiaville line. They are very slow movers to the southeast with high rainfall rates.
Over the next five hours, a few may develop or make it a bit farther southward & northward on either side of the current storms as they collapse (as outflow boundaries surge outward).
Most of the storms should collapse by 11 p.m., though a couple isolated showers/storms may still linger into the overnight, but coverage will be at 20% or less.
Lows tonight will only drop to 70-74.
A few more storms may re-develop late, late tonight to tomorrow morning, then diminish (30%).
However, a few new storms may fire in the afternoon to evening before collapsing (30%) as clouds re-build (& high & mid clouds from Barry remnants move south to north into the area.
A random, isolated severe storm is possible in either instance.
Highs tomorrow will run (with partly to mostly cloudy skies) at 90-96 with heat indices of 98-107.
A period of some showers are possible here Monday night to Tuesday morning, followed by sun, clouds building & scattered storms with the risk of an isolated severe storm or two (45% coverage).
Highs will run 87-92 with heat indices 96-103.
Intense heat wave should dominate late week through next weekend.
90s will dominate with some areas reaching very close to 100.
Friday-Saturday currently look the hottest at 94-99 over the area.
Heat indices will run +104 daily to as high as 112.
Heat Advisory is highly-likely with potential of issuance of Excessive Heat Warning for the area for late week & next weekend.
Overnights will be exceptionally warm. In fact, Friday night may feature a southwest breeze all night, keeping the low at 75-80.
It isn't completely out of the question for a few random isolated storms at any point that break through the cap, given daily ML CAPE of +4000 J/kg.
A random, very isolated storm that could completely overcome the cap would go way up very, very quickly & then collapse, resulting in the risk of a wet downburst with some large hail & brief heavy rainfall (even if there is only one or two storms).
Projected actual air high temperatures on Saturday of next weekend (for an example):
An MCS with severe weather risk (wind) late Monday night or Tuesday may cut the heat a bit.
Slightly cooler weather may occur Monday, but bigger cool-down will not arrive for several days afternoon.
- July 14, 5:15 PM Weather Forecast Update
- February 14, 7 PM Weather Forecast Update
- August 14, 4 PM Weather Forecast Update
- December 14, 2 PM Weather Forecast Update
- March 14, 2 PM Weather Forecast Update
- April 14, 12 PM Weather Forecast Update
- June 14, 5 PM Weather Forecast Update
- July 17, 11 PM Weather Forecast Update
- July 22, 6 PM Weather Forecast Update
- July 24, 1 PM Weather Forecast Update