We still have not dropped below 10 officially at Purdue!
We may not see temperatures below 10 until near January 20. This would rank in the top latest occurrences of single digits of any winter since 1879.
We have seen single digits every single winter since 1879.
The latest was in the mild 1997-98 winter with a low of 5 on March 12.
Second latest was January 30 with 9 in the winter of 1931-32.
Only 5 winters overall have seen lows below 10 on or after January 20.
With areas of freezing fog tonight, lows should drop into the 20s to around 30.
With lots of clouds Wednesday, a few isolated to spotty light rain/snow to snow showers are possible late. Highs will reach the 34-40 range.
After 27-32 tomorrow night, clouds continue to dominate Thursday with 32-37 with a few isolated light snow & rain/snow showers.
Some breaks in the clouds are possible Friday with 31-36 after morning lows of 26-30.
After 22-27 early Saturday morning, clouds dominate with some scattered flurries & snow showers with highs 30-35.
Same applies to Sunday.
Local dustings to coatings are possible.
Monday looks continued gray with 31-35 with lows Monday night at 23-28.
Tuesday warms a bit to 36-42 with 31-36 Tuesday night.
Some rain to snow is possible next Wednesday night-Thursday (local dustings to coatings possible).
A snow system is possible Friday (some minor accumulation possible), followed by a rain (with warm-up) to snow system Saturday-Sunday (January 16-17) with strong winds. Wind-driven snowfall accumulation is possible.
Some snow is possible around January 18-19 with minor accumulation & strong winds.
January 19-21 is likely to feature the coldest weather of the winter potentially with lows -4 to 5. Highs should run in the teens to 20s.
Nothing extreme, but potentially the worst of the winter.
So PNA keeping us relatively mild & a bit drier is the big influencer right now with MJO slight influence with its Phase 2 (tends to be a bit milder phase in January but nothing extremely warm). Negative NAO, AO, lessening PNA influence & a Stratospheric warming episode all point to this cold shot ahead. The strength of it may be tempered by PNA still trying to bath some Pacific air in. This will also push the heart of it toward the Northeast U.S. from eastern Ohio to Virginia to Maine.
Nonetheless, shot of cold will penetrate here in the next 1.5 to 2 weeks.
A major warm-up is possible at the very end of January to start of February. Rain, some t'storms & near/record warmth cannot be ruled out. Some severe weather risk may also make it as far north as part of our area. Rivers will be on the rise to near/at flood stage with the rain & a big sudden thaw.
This would be result of La Nina effects suddenly pulsing up & outweighing the NAO, AO & Strat warm effects. MJO may also exert some milder effects for a time. This, before sudden cold parameters shut it down again. That combined with La Nina effects brings some interesting weather with ice in February.........
So, trends are that a shot of sharply colder air will follow setting the stage for icing event or even ice storm in February.
Overall, however, February still looks warmer than normal with above normal precipitation. I still went for below normal snowfall (normal is 5-10").
Still thoughts are on early start to spring warmth.
Focus is still on stormy, wet, warm spring.............
Warmer than normal spring:
Wetter than normal spring with higher severe weather risk & risk of flooding:
Then focus is on hot, dry summer with at least one derecho......
Hotter than normal summer:
Drier than normal summer with potential of widespread drought over the region:
It looks dry & very warm right through September 2021 (unless tropical systems track over the area, which is possible given active hurricane season expected). It does not look as active as 2020, but still much above normal for sheer number of storms & the strength of those storms.