January 5, 10 PM Update

Big changes coming with active pattern down the road.

Posted: Jan 5, 2021 9:32 PM
Updated: Jan 5, 2021 9:34 PM

It has been a mild winter so far (though cooler regime with uptick in ice & snow around the start of the new year) & overall 2020-21 will likely go down not only as a mild winter, but a warmer than normal Fall-Winter-Spring period overall.

It has been & continues to look as if January will be the coldest month of the winter.  However, it may still end up above normal temperature-wise.

I am still going with normal snowfall for January (6-12") before all is said & done.

It certainly appears the coldest air of the winter is on the horizon, as well as snow increases.

The cold should blast in around & be with us in the January 19-23 time frame.

With a blanket of snow laid down likely prior to the shot of much colder air, I think widespread below 0 to 0 overnight lows are likely (potentially for multiple nights.

However, I also see a very, very sudden, impressive thaw coming at the very end of January to the start of February.  This could be a surge of significant almost spring-like warmth with rain & even some storms.  This would be the warmest weather of January & the wettest weather of January.  Severe weather is likely across the South & Ohio Valley with some potentially as far north as our area.

On yet the other hand is a cold surge that follows in early February with lows back to 0 to single digits & potentially a snow & sleet to extensive icing event.

It should consistently improve after that with warmer, wet weather & even some t'storms & taste of spring.

However, these two cold shots are substantial, especially the one in January & we will get accumulating snow ahead of it.

Icing is something to watch in February.

So, the gray, dreary relative tranquility we see now with pretty seasonable chill during the day & above normal temperatures at night with only light precipitation will come to an end.  Much more volatility is ahead with the big cold, snow swing to big thaw swing & back & forth.

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