This is a nice end to the work week. We have some high & mid clouds coming through, but still dim sun around.
The clouds have given us a beautiful sunset! This band of cloudiness looks like the paint strokes of a Bob Ross painting. I still watch reruns of his "Joy of Painting" show on Netflix!
Clouds will decrease tonight, followed by calm winds, heavy frost & some patchy fog with patchy black ice. Lows of 26-29 are likely.
Tomorrow looks nice with only a few patches of high clouds at times & a few patches of stratocumulus clouds in the northeast perhaps.
Highs of 48-52 are likely with west winds at 9-12 mph.
Sunday is one of the changes to the 7-day forecast. Saturday looks great. Sunday is a bit so-so.
It appears that back door cold front will come in from the northeast in response to system over Ontario & Quebec tracking a little farther southwestward.
So, some low clouds will come in from the northeast, while increasing & thickening high & mid clouds will stream in from the southwest. This will all result in lots of clouds with some sun. Winds will run 10-15 mph from the northeast, then east. Highs should run 41-47 with the coolest temperatures in our northeastern & eastern counties.
This 41-47 is a drop from the projected 49-53 up yesterday with mostly sunny skies for Sunday.
The front will move back northward as a warm front, so winds should go back southerly to southwesterly (15-25 mph) for Monday with highs 51-55 as rain moves in. The initial thought was 0.40-0.60" of rainfall from this system, but thinking more & more it will be more like 0.28-0.40".
Tuesday looks pretty good with sunshine & some cumulus/stratocumulus clouds (partly cloudy) with highs 46-50. It looks like a windy day from the west, however. Winds of 20-35 mph are possible.
Secondary cold front should be dry & usher in colder weather for Wednesday with highs 30-36 & northwest winds at 15-25 mph. The southwestern half of the area looks mostly sunny, but mostly cloudy skies may remain in the northeast half as stratus/stratocumulus clouds pivot into that area from the northwest. The warmest temperatures Wednesday will be in the southwest.
Another forecast change is regarding the temperatures Thursday-Friday. At first this week I was not sold on 40s to 50 those days, but I felt so much pressure to this mild weather that has been consistent (since mid-December) to raise the temperature Thursday & Friday to the 40s to 50.
Today, models are going back to what my original thinking was. That is, colder weather & it looks like a sign the models are beginning to pick up on the stair-step downward to much colder & eventually snowy weather ahead.
I went for 33-38 Thursday with partly cloudy skies & 35-40 Friday with scattered rain & snow showers possible.
The GFS-FV3 is a bit more aggressive with snow & ice Friday. I am not going that aggressive with widespread iciness & snow yet.
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