It was a very mild January with temperature around 4 degrees above normal here at our WLFI ob site. Snowfall will also end up above normal, however.
Overall viewing area January temperature anomalies will go down as 2-4.5 degrees with snowfall around to slightly above normal.
Interestingly, the snow has fallen with very mild temperatures. The coldest I have measured with our snow the past 24 hours is 31.3 & that is at 10:15 p.m.......This after 36.3 lastnight with some rain that took solid 1" off our snow pack from 12 a.m. to 10 a.m.
This, after a very mild late Fall to Winter overall with a lack of snowfall.
In this mildness, we have seen 3 icing events this winter.....the most since the 2007-08 winter.
It was an unusually warm January, especially over the Great Lakes & Plains with the least amount of ice cover on the Great Lakes on record (records back to 1973). However, ships logs show that they could have least amount of ice since 1932.
January 1-30 temperature mean anomalies (31st not figured in yet....I have already figured that into the graphic above):
Snowfall totals from this storm are running 2.5-10.5".........lightest in the southwest, heaviest in the far north...
Forecast snowfall totals Friday night at 11 p.m., then upped south to 2-4" Saturday a.m. & kept the rest the same:
Preliminary map of what actually occurred from reports as of 8:40 p.m. on Sunday, January 31:
Roads are icy tonight. Be careful! Another up to 1" of snow is possible before it tapers to flurries. Wind chills will run in the teens.
Watch for blowing & drifting snow with north winds at 15-30 mph.
Roads will be icy in the morning, but turn much better in the afternoon.
Rain is likely by Thursday as snow continues to melt, but it is so packed & tight & heavy, it will take a while to melt a lot. Rain will end as snow Thursday night with off/on snow showers & flurries Friday-Sunday (with lake effect, too).
Arctic front will bring sharply colder weather by Saturday night.
Rather than one single prolonged cold wave with ice & snow risk February 12-21, I think it will be split into two pieces with warmth in-between.
Rather than the Polar Vortex loosening for one single wave of cold for a week in mid-February after strong MJO warm phase here (that is the way it looked at first), two loops appear to be breaking off. They also look significant enough to out-do any other warming player on the court. Of all the players fighting for dominance toward chunk of warmth & wetness with taste of spring & those with loosening pieces of Polar Vortex, these two pieces should outdo the EPO, PNA, PDO & MJO in two period of February.
One cold wave should be February 6-9 & another February 14-22 with sudden, rapid warm-up with rain & even some t'storms in-between.
In-between we may be 20-30 degrees above normal & during the cold waves 20-30 degrees below normal! Hang on for the ride!!
Either one of these will have the coldest air of the winter. After lows as low as 5 last week in the area, this will bring the below 0 to 0 temperatures finally.
Snow & ice risk (some substantial?) will accompany the cold, especially the February 14-22 round.
Much warmer weather is projected after February 22.