January 31, 6 PM Weather Forecast Update

Here is your latest update on the forecast & then trends of what is shaping up for 2020-22.

Posted: Jan 31, 2020 3:53 PM
Updated: Jan 31, 2020 6:28 PM

After very minor accumulating snowfall this morning (I measured 0.3" of "cat track" snow) with amounts reported up to 0.6", we are overcast this afternoon with a few spits of drizzle here & there.

Highs today ran 36-40.

Some patchy light drizzle/freezing drizzle with some light fog is possible tonight, followed by a few snow showers tonight-Saturday morning, then a few spotty rain & snow showers Saturday afternoon.

It looks mostly cloudy to cloudy Saturday with highs 36-43 with winds picking up from the southwest at 15-25 mph.

Some patches of light drizzle are possible Saturday night with steady temperatures in the 33-36 range with southwest winds increasing to gusts of 32 mph late. 

Sunday looks spring-like with mostly sunny skies & highs 55-60 with strong southwest gusts 30-40 mph with a few 40-50 mph gusts.

After 40s Sunday night with diminishing winds, highs should reach 55-58 Monday with winds increasing to 30-35 mph gusts possible.  Skies should become cloudy in the afternoon with rain by late evening.

The change in the forecast is rather than one round of precipitation with rain to ice to snow with sudden blast of cold, cold air, it appears that THREE rounds of precipitation will occur Monday evening to Wednesday.

Rather than just system being in & out & a blast, the cold air is held back a hair & moderates some, then undercuts fronts slowly.

A total of 0.75-1.10" liquid is possible here Monday-Wednesday. 

Another big rainfall in the Ohio Valley is likely with 2-6" Maryland & West Virginia, through Kentucky & far southern Indiana & Ohio to as far south as Tennessee.  Flooding is likely.

So...............

ROUND #1:  ALL RAIN (ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER)............MONDAY EVENING-TUESDAY LATE MORNING

ROUND #2:  RAIN/FREEZING RAIN TO RAIN/FREEZING RAIN/SLEET........TUESDAY EVENING TO WEDNESDAY MORNING

ROUND #3:  FREEZING RAIN/SLEET TO SNOW......WEDNESDAY LATE AFTERNOON-NIGHT

Some minor accumulations of ice & snow are possible Tuesday night-Wednesday night.

With a few flurries, temperatures quickly moderate at the end of next week to normal levels.

Overall mean temperature anomaly trend February-March:

At least there is a signature of above-normal temperatures for a period in late March amidst a colder March overall.

Trend continued towards wetter than normal pattern February to March:

February-March-April 2020 still trends toward above normal precipitation:

February-March-April 2020 temperature trend is slightly-below normal overall.

Trend continues to be for a traditional La Nina to evolve in 2020-21 & peak in 2021-22.

This means earlier springs, drier springs with more timely planting & more in the way of violent severe weather in the Midwest in the spring.

It also spells risk of widespread drought in the southern Plains & southeast U.S. & potential of drought reaching our area with time.

There is a higher occurrence of temperatures in the 90s to 100s in this pattern.  By 2022, it will have been 10 years since our last 100 in the area, so we will be due.

Hurricane frequency may begin to pick up as early as 2020, but especially 2021 & 22 before backing off.  Analog shows a high tendency for an El Nino of equal strength as the likely 2022-23 or 2023-24 after moderate to strong La Nina.

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Warmer with More Humidity and a Few Storms This Weekend
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