January 30, 5:45 PM Weather Forecast Update: From Record Cold to Snow to Flash Thaw, Then Snow, Ice & Cold Again

There is a lot of highly-impactful weather now-March 15.

Posted: Jan 30, 2019 4:51 PM
Updated: Jan 30, 2019 6:07 PM

Lows tonight will run -21 to -13 with wind chills -40 to -25.  These wind chills will last into the morning hours.  Wind chills will gradually improve tomorrow with wind chills rising to around 0 by tomorrow evening.

Snow should begin to move into our far western & southwestern fringe around 5 p.m. & overspread the entire viewing area by 7:30 p.m.

Snow should exit the viewing area by 5 a.m. Friday.

Wind will not be a big factor with this snow & temperatures will actually rise from single digits to 15-22 Thursday evening to early Friday morning.

Friday looks partly to mostly cloudy with only a light wind.  It will feel downright balmy at 26-32.

Some patches of light freezing drizzle are possible later Friday night-early Saturday morning as temperatures rise to 25-31 after initially dropping to 16-22 Friday evening.

Some patchy freezing drizzle should go to some patchy drizzle Saturday with some drizzle Saturday night-Sunday with a few showers.  Winds will increase quite a bit, but there will still be areas of fog around.

Widespread rainfall should pass through Monday with strong south-southwest winds to 40 mph.

A flash thaw will take place with temperatures rising to 50 by Sunday, then into the 50s Sunday night with a 53-59 high Monday. 

Ice jams will likely develop & rainfall of 0.50-1" will result in stream rises anyway.  Potholes & cracks in roadways will develop rapidly & gravel county road quality will tank.

The sudden warmth may also cause pipe bursts.

Tuesday looks cold with temperatures falling into the 20s by afternoon.

System Wednesday may being some rain showers, then some rain/snow showers before ending.  Highs may reach 35-42 early, then fall to the 20s in the afternoon with strong winds from the northwest up to 40 mph.

Late next week to the middle of February looks active with multiple winter weather/storm systems possible with snow & ice with intrusions of bitterly cold air.  Although the Arctic blasts do not look as bad as this one we are currently encountering, I think near/record cold could occur in one or two instances as lows drop to -20 to -10 with wind chills -25 to -32.

Florida & the Deep South has escaped much of this really intense, record cold right now.  However, I think the potential will increase a lot in late next week to mid-February for an Arctic Blast to make it all the way through the Florida Peninsula & all the way to the Gulf Coast.

Thoughts are that the upper teens could make it Gainesville, Florida, 21 to Ocala & Orlando could get to 31 with 39 at Miami.  This would occur as some Bermuda-type high influence diminishes.  Granted, we are still dropping to 28-33 tonight all the way down to Ocala with 39-45 at Orlando, but February will feature much higher potential of a bigger cold impact to Florida.

You can see the persisent Arctic high nudging in & the parade of multiple storm systems February 7-15.

We may see another significant, but short-lived burst of warmth with a thaw around the February 19-21 period with rain & some t'storms, followed by another burst of bitterly cold Arctic air that may hang on in varying intensity February 22-March 5.

Additional snow/ice systems are possible that period.

The pattern should really begin to change with trough in the far western & southwestern U.S. & ridging in the East with warmth by mid-March.  I think we could get to 68-73 with this ridging by March 17.  This is based on analog trends of years most similar to the current one.

I think a warmer regime, compared to normal, could actually be pretty dominate to the start of April.

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