January 2, 10 PM Weather Forecast Update

March-like to end the week & then right through the weekend.

Posted: Jan 2, 2019 9:46 PM
Updated: Jan 2, 2019 10:54 PM

For early January Thursday to Sunday is a nice stretch of weather!  It will feel like early March when the first inklings of spring appear!

The flow will be highly split with the unusually cold air in the southwestern half of the U.S. moderating.  However, some of that chill will be caught up in a storm system that will bring chilly rainfall across the South & even ice & snow to Texas & Oklahoma.

Polar jet will be way north, bottling up bitterly cold air, while subtropical jet way south with the that cold riding the underbelly of our milder weather.  There will be considerable sinking & warming air off the Northern Rockies this upper jet way to the north, so it may actually be warmer in Montana & Alberta than Texas & Oklahoma.

We will be bathed in dry, Pacific air, so it is not record warm, but temperatures will run 13-19 degrees above normal for daytime highs.

It is only weak El Nino Modoki, but this screams traditional, more potent El Nino (though the sea surface temperatures in the Pacific do not show this). 

All of this deep moisture coming into Texas & the Southeast is more of a product of the very persistent, very active MJO with lots & lots of convection & now this convection is moving eastward.  That means we will begin to break away from the warmer MJO phase & head into a colder one past mid-January.

Regardless, to get four overall mostly sunny days in a row in January is a feat, unless you have Arctic cold, frigid airmass that is extremely dry with very high surface air pressure.  However, we will be in the 40s & 50s!  Usually such warm-ups are gray, damp & cloudy & often foggy in our area in January.

It will be a stair-step downward to colder weather (especially after mid-month to February) after rain Monday to Tuesday morning.  Rainfall amounts of 0.40-0.60"are expected.

Even the usually insanely warm CFS shows some brutal cold coming, especially late January & into February with low temperatures well below zero for multiple days.

It shows temperatures up to 40 degrees below normal here, which seems more plausible than 40 degrees above.  40 degree below normal would equate to lows of near -22.

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Storms & another heat wave is ahead!
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