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January 29, 4 PM Update Weather Forecast & Wind Chill History

Here is the latest forecast update.

Posted: Jan 29, 2019 3:38 PM
Updated: Jan 30, 2019 2:25 AM

WIND CHILL HISTORY AT THE PURDUE AIRPORT:

JANUARY 6, 2014 - LAST TIME WE SAW WIND CHILL DROP TO -40 AT THE PURDUE AIRPORT

JANUARY 18, 1994 - LAST TIME WIND CHILLS BOTTOMED OUT AT <-40 THERE

JANUARY 20, 1985 - LAST TIME WIND CHILLS BOTTOMED OUT AT -45 THERE

JANUARY 20, 1985 - LAST TIME WIND CHILLS BOTTOMED OUT AT -50 THERE

WE AVERAGE 3 OCCURRENCES OF -40 WIND CHILLS PER DECADE, PER DATA FROM GREATER LAFAYETTE OVER THE PAST 60 YEARS.

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Second Arctic front is now moving into our far northwestern areas.  We have had a few flurries around today with the clouds/sun mix of stratocumulus clouds, but no real snow showers since this early this morning.

There are a few spotty flurries coming from these clouds on radar, but not a lot yet.  It is definitely windy with widespread gusts of 32-41 mph currently over the viewing area.  Temperatures are running 7 to 16 with wind chills -17 to -4 currently with blowing snow.

Model data suggests that some snow showers will develop this evening actually behind the Arctic front with only a few snow showers or flurries along it.  Winds may gust to 45 mph with its passage though.

The peak in snow shower/squall action should be overnight in the 1-4 a.m. time frame as a a little vort max pivots out of Missouri into the area.  This will correspond with the lowest tropospheric thickenesses moving into the area (480 in the northern counties................the lowest value there since 1985! This is a measure of troposphere thickness, meaning that it will contract due to the cold air & will contract the most it has in our northern counties since 1985).  This means this burst of snow & gusty winds of up to 41 mph will occur as the coldest air comes in.

Sharp clearing behind it will only enhance the cold & the winds will continue to be gusty.

1" of less of powdery accumulation is expected & it will blow around everywhere.

All that said, -50 to -35 wind chills with actual air temperatures of -25 to -16 still look good (around -40 Lafayette area wind chills & -20 air temperature).

The worst of the wind chills (-50 to -35) will be early tomorrow morning to midday.  They will still be bad at -40 to -20 afternoon through tomorrow night to Thursday midday, however.

Wind chills will likely not climb above 0 until Thursday evening or night as accumulating snowfall comes in & temperatures rise.

Now to tomorrow morning 8 a.m. actual air temperature trend:

Now to tomorrow morning wind chill trend:

In terms of snowfall Thursday night with Alberta clipper system, 1-3" is likely.  However, there will be a band of 3-6" & it is possible that such a band may set up over part of the viewing area.  We will monitor closely.  At this time, wind does not look like a big factor with this system.  They will tend to run east-southeast at 9-13 mph.

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