Lake Michigan can have a big impact on our weather here. Note where the lake effect clouds & flurries lingered & overall warmth from the largely unfrozen lake set up. Lows there were 18-23.
Meanwhile, away from lake effects lows reached as low as 6. That made this morning one of, if not the, coldest morning of the winter so far. The 8 at Covington is their coldest of the winter so far. Parts of east-central Illinois dropped below zero this morning, including nearby Edgar County Airport at -1.
I made very small tweaks to this map pending the next round of data. I shifted the 4-6" & 2-4" a bit south & 1-2" just a hair south, as well.
The 6-8" band should skim into our far northern fringe.
Still..............be aware of tweaks to this forecast. It is a difficult one with the exact pinpoint track slightly unclear & the tug-of-war of the evaporative cooling processes in tandem with the warm air trying to overspread the area from the south & south-southeast.
The worst of the conditions should be Saturday evening-night.
Snow should overspread the area with time after 3:30 p.m. Saturday after highs of 35-41. Evaporative cooling will knock that back to 30-33. That cooling will also cause all snow for the area for a while.
With time a change-over to icy mix & then rain should occur southwest to northeast.
Rain should then end as snow showers Sunday PM to Sunday night & Monday with 1" or less.
Again, slight deviation in track to the south or bit colder air hanging on longer will mean higher totals, especially in the heart of the area & south.
Stay weather aware & follow frequent updates over the next 36 hours.
After warmer trend with wet weather, cold weather & ice & snow risk will dominate February 10-20.