January 27, 4 PM Weather Forecast Update

Dreary, gloomy weather with some snow, freezing drizzle, fog.......then 60-degree temperature plunge possible next week!

Posted: Jan 27, 2020 2:45 PM
Updated: Jan 27, 2020 4:31 PM

There have been a few spotty spits of flurries, patchy light freezing drizzle around with some patchy fog lastnight-today.  Solid, low overcast remains with 3:30 p.m. temperatures of 29-34.

A few snow flurries & snow showers with some patchy light freezing drizzle may increase tonight to tomorrow morning with some patchy fog.  Lows will run 27-30.

Watch for a few slick spots tonight-tomorrow morning, as even just damp pavement from freezing drizzle can have just enough black ice to make for risk.  A thin semi- to translucent layer of snow can also make for a few slick spots, as well.

A few spotty to scattered flurries & snow showers are possible tomorrow with still lots of clouds.  Highs will run 32-36.

Some isolated spotty snow/rain is possible Wednesday-Thursday with lots of clouds.  Any slick spots would be confined to the morning, evening & night-time hours.

A wave of some snow is possible Thursday night-Friday morning (still some uncertainty on timing....could be earlier or later) with some very minor accumulation.  It should melt quickly though.

Mix to rain to snow is possible Saturday.  Some very minor accumulation may occur Saturday night.

A sudden, random, brief warm-up with strong southerly winds will commence around Monday.

It appears that highs could reach 55-60 Tuesday with some showers & isolated thunder & howling south to south-southwest winds 25-40 mph.

However, Arctic front is due in Tuesday night.  It appears that a narrow, low-topped convective line (gusty showers/thunder) may accompany the frontal passage & rain should quickly change to a brief period of freezing rain/sleet to snow (some very minor accumulation possible).  Temperatures may drop from 55-60 Tuesday evening to 10-15 by Wednesday morning with wind chills to -10 to -5.

West-northwest winds may gust 40-50 mph.

Another Arctic front should follow with snow, then temperatures potentially dropping well below 0 in our area.

Around February 4 & 9 may feature some snowfall.

Note the weakening of the Polar Vortex with plunge of bitter cold deep into our area & even Mexico.

Veracruz on the coastal plain off the Bay of Campeche may be cloudy & windy with highs only near 60.

The magnitude of our cold will be determined by how much snow pack sets up in our area & areas just north of us.

The deeper, the colder it will get.

I still think temperatures well below zero are possible in multiple instances in February.

You can see the first Arctic front, then note the second one in the far northern U.S. dropping southward next week.

Eastern Pacific Oscillation goes negative, promoting cold air intrustion into our area & MJO favors a colder phase.

There are also signs of some stratospheric warming on our side of the world, which means Polar Vortex loosening, allowing bitter cold to move southward.

We have not seen sustained rigors of winter for more than a couple of days since Christmas, but that will change & February should feature the coldest weather of the winter.

Colder weather dominates well into March.

Some ice jam issues may develop, given expected above normal precipitation in March.

These are the temperature anomalies forecast for March 2-9:

February-March period is overall colder than normal.

Normal snowfall for February-March for Greater Lafayette is around 8" total.  I think we will exceed that.

For the viewing area as a whole it is 7.5-10" total.  I do think that that will be exceeded.

There is a high degree of moisture locked up in soils over a massive area as of January 26.  The green indicates above normal soil moisture for the time of year.  We have had nearly 5" of liquid here at the station for January.

This is similar to last January with widespread excesses of soil moisture over a massive area.

Given the wetter than normal March & April expected, above normal flooding issues will return to the Midwest.

Here, unless we can get really nice dry periods in April, planting season will be delayed quite a bit again.

April precipitation is trending above normal.

March temperatures are trending colder than normal with April showing slightly below normal temperatures.

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Dry, windy, very warm weather, followed by scattered rain & much cooler conditions.
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