We have seen three icing events this winter; the most since at least the 2007-08 winter. I do not think we are finished yet.
I also still think that January will end up as the snowiest month of this winter of below normal snowfall.
We have some snow showers in the area tonight all courtesy of an unfrozen Lake Michigan after some snow in our southern areas a bit earlier. Up to 4.5", however, was reported with that snowfall system in southern Indiana & even south-central Illinois picked up +3". Louisville, Kentucky area has picked up 2-3.5" so far.
Snow in our southern areas has exited, now that lake effect is coming into the area.
Lake effect snow showers will be with us for several hours before diminishing late.
Lows will vary from 15-22 depending on whether you have lingering lake effect cloudiness tomorrow morning.
Localized dustings to coatings of 0.5" or less accumulations are possible. Watch for some slick spots in areas that see the accumulation.
Best chance of 1" would be over the far north.
Tomorrow will eventually become mostly sunny to sunny with highs 28-32. North to north-northwest winds tonight to tomorrow will lead to wind chills of 0-10 in the morning & 18-25 in the afternoon.
With clear skies & calm winds under surface high tomorrow night, frosty conditiosn with some patchy freezing fog are possible wint single digits to teens.
Friday looks breezy & warmer with mostly sunny skies & highs 32-37.
24-30 is likely Friday night-Saturday morning with increasing clouds & southeast winds leading to wind chills in the teens to around 20.
Thoughts today have been for accumulating snow over the northeastern 3/4 of the area (heaviest as you go northeast with a few inches possible of 1.5-3.5") to go to brief mix then all rain Saturday night to Sunday before ending as some snow.
This has been the result of the system making a more southerly track due to deep snowpack in Iowa to northern Iowa & event the snowpack over Missouri to Illinois, southern Indiana, Kentucky & east to southeastward.
If it keeps tracking too far south, we are in for higher & higher snowfall amounts. If we end up with all snow, this will be a significant snowfall for the area of +5".
There no great confidence that we will end up with all snow & significant snow here.
Right now, I am sticking with snow & mix Saturday afternoon-evening, changing to rain Saturday night to Sunday, then ending as snow with band of heavy snow from Iowa to northern Illinois to northern Indiana to central & northern Ohio.
However, be aware that a more southerly track will increase our odds of more & more snow here.
Strong winds with gusts 30-35 mph are possible with the system from the southeast to east to north & northwest.
There are three storm systems with warmth, locally-heavy rainfall & even some t'storms from the start of February until around February 9, then much colder weather settles in for mid-February. A tie for the coldest weather of the winter or it being THE coldest weather of the winter is possible with a good set-up for an icing event & even a snow event.
So, first warm spell with temperature anomalies:
Second warm spell temperature anomalies:
Third warm spell temperature anomalies:
Note the surge of colder air coming in by February 11-12 & the significant warmth moving eastward.
In that February 1-9 period, there are signs of multiple round of some near/record warmth day &/or night from the Midwest to New England.
Some severe risk may make it as far north as our region with much higher severe risk across the southern U.S. with some tornadoes.
It appears that 2-3.5" of total rainfall may occur in our area February 1-9.
Mid-February temperature anomalies:
The battle zone will tend to set up over our area, so a long-duration icing episode & even a snow event still cannot be ruled out.
Above normal precipitation is likely during this time with a good icing set-up from the Ozarks to New England.
A bounce-back to a surge of warmer weather is possible at the end of February............
..............but it also looks wet: