January 24, 5 PM Weather Forecast Update

Rain to snow....

Posted: Jan 24, 2020 2:33 PM
Updated: Jan 24, 2020 4:45 PM

Waves of rain & drizzle with fog continue over the area.

Rain is pivoting in from the south.

It is a gross, nasty, cold rain at that with temperatures in the 30s to around 40 over the area.

No substantial rises in rivers or creeks are expected with overall liquid under-performing a bit with this system.  Heavier rainfall is northeast & east of our area with +1" amounts possible.

Area of steady, wet snow should wrap in from the west late tonight through Saturday morning.

It may mix with or change to rain at times midday-early afternoon, then taper to scattered snow showers.

After temperatures around 32 late tonight-Saturday morning, we should reach 34-36 with strong west-southwest winds at 15-32 mph.

Near 1" of accumulation is likely for much of the area, but a few locations may see up to 2".

The best chance of isolated +2" is still over Newton, northwestern Benton County at the moment.

The 4-9" amounts will occur over northern Illinois.

Few isolated flurries/sprinkles to light rain/snow showers are possible Sunday with, gray, dark, dreary conditions.

A few isolated to spotty rain/snow showers are possible Monday, Tuesday to Wednesday with mostly cloudy to cloudy skies.

Highs will run in the 30s to 40 with lows upper 20s to around 30 with west-northwest to northwest winds light at 4-9 mph.

Really, the best chance at this point to see the sun now through next Friday is Monday morning.

Scattered rain/snow is possible Wednesday night-Thursday with north-northwest to north winds at 5-12 mph.

Friday looks gray with north wind becoming calm, then turning to east late at 2-5 mph.

Wet snow is possible Friday night to Saturday.  Some accumulation is possible.

Strong, gusty north to northwest winds (20-35 mph) may develop next Saturday as temperatures fall from 32-33 early to 20s late.

As we move into February, colder pattern will settle in overall.

Of note is more of a colder MJO phase, but also, model trends suggests stratospheric warming in a lobe on our side of the world.  We will monitor this, as it would suggests bitter cold intrustion in February as the Polar Vortex weakens.  Again, we will monitor, it has only really weakened substantially once & discharged since Christmas.

Lows will drop back to the single digits & even below 0 at times.

The risk of snow events will be there as well.

Overall mean temperatures February to as late as March 6 average below normal:

MJO has had a big impact on our weather in the past few weeks.

Australia Bureau of Meteorology has the best modeling of the MJO.

If is now going out of a solid Phase 7 to neutral, then Phase 3.

Note Phase 7 is overall pretty mild in the eastern U.S., while Phase 3 is colder pattern in the January-February-March period from an analog standpoint.

These maps take into account that the MJO is the biggest forecast player.  If other players are stronger on the court, its effects will be dampened.

The stronger the MJO phase, the greater the impact.

Phase 7 is wetter, like we have been having & Phase 3 is drier, but not excessively so.

We were in Phase 6 when we saw all of the flooding mid-month.  Note above how that phase favors warmth, too, especially in the upper Ohio Valley (it hit 80 at Charleston, WV & 72 at Columbus, OH).

So, we can see that the MJO has largely outcompeted all other players on the court to dominate our weather in January.

This is interesting, as it is all tied to SSTs India to Australia & New Zealand.

Again, making a seasonal or monthly forecast is like going back to October or November & trying to predict how many games Purdue basketball would win this season, who would be the dominate player & contribute the most & how they had the best probability of beating.

No where in basketball modeling data would you come up with a 63-37 loss to Illinois, but a 71-42 win against Michigan State & then a 79-62 loss to Illinois again..............& at Mackey.

In terms of player dominance............data suggests Wheeler dominance in the early Fall, then Proctor emerged, now Williams all of the sudden emerged with a recent +30-point performance.

Seasonal & monthly forecast is very similar.

March continues to trend colder than normal.

March continues to trend wetter than normal, as well.

I think the above normal values in the Ohio Valley will be extended northward to our area.

Thoughts continue to be that above normal precipitation will occur Missouri, Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Ohio, West Virgina to Pennsylvania, even New York & New Jersey to Massachusetts.

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Warmer, dry weather is ahead for the weekend.
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