SEVERE WX : Flood Warning View Alerts

January 23, 3 PM Weather Forecast Update

Dreary forecast.....

Posted: Jan 23, 2020 2:03 PM
Updated: Jan 23, 2020 5:58 PM

Areas of snow, sleet & rain are moving through the area.

It is too warm for any road issues.

Up to 0.5" of snow fell this morning in parts of Newton & Jasper counties with trace amounts in far western Benton & Warren. 

Here at West Lafayette, I have recorded a trace of sleet with sleet in roof crevices, but wet streets noted.

Some scattered light rain & sleet is moving through the area now (could mix with snow in northwest), but this should go to all rain with time.

Should be all rain tonight & then mix with & then go back to snow late tomorrow-tomorrow night.

After 36-37 tonight-tomorrow, we should drop to 32-34 by late tomorrow.

Snow is possible Saturday, especially in the morning, with strong northwest wind.

Some snow showers/flurries are possible up to Sunday, as well.

Highs will run near 35 with lows near 30.

Looks like around 1-2" of wet, slushy snow Friday night-Saturday morning with best potential of seeing some +2" amounts in our far northwest.

We will montior to see if these numbers need to be increased or decreased.  Changes are possible to that forecast.

After that, lots of clouds dominate with a few shortwaves bringing just a few isolated to spotty rain & snow showers Sunday-Tuesday with highs 30s to 40s & lows near 30.

0.60-1.30" liquid is possible from this system.

Given our rather elevated, sensitive rivers right now, rises are likely again to near flood stage, if not a bit higher.

Rain to snow & then rain to snow again is possible mid & late next week & early in the weekend of February 1-2.

There really no bitterly cold air to be had up to February 10.  Even if models point to it, I doubt it. 

With tight Polar Vortex due to lack of stratospheric warming, milder, wet MJO phase attributed to sea surface temperature pattern around India to Australia to New Zealand.

It is actually what is happening around Australia that is having a bigger impact on our weather than the Southeast ridge or Polar Vortex anymore.

This is interesting, as all sea surface temperatures & solar minimum all point to Arctic intrusion into eastern U.S. with an overall neutral ENSO (no El Nino or La Nina in any form).

We have been in solid, strong MJO Phase 4-5-6, now 7 in January.......which is all tied to the Australia-India region SSTs.

We are forecast to go to a Phase 1-2-3, however, Australia's main MJO model suggests & lower strength phase for us, so less impact on us.

This all points to colder weather with time in February.  It also points to drier weather, but still enough moisture for snow potential.

This has been the mildest January since 2006.

Note MJO 4-5-6 & what it promotes here in the January-February-March period:

These are wet phases, as well.  This is the wettest January overall since 2008.

MJO....were it has been & where it is projected to go:

Lafayette
Clear
46° wxIcon
Hi: 60° Lo: 35°
Feels Like: 42°
Kokomo
Clear
42° wxIcon
Hi: 56° Lo: 33°
Feels Like: 37°
Rensselaer
Clear
37° wxIcon
Hi: 58° Lo: 33°
Feels Like: 34°
Lafayette
Clear
46° wxIcon
Hi: 58° Lo: 33°
Feels Like: 42°
Danville
Clear
43° wxIcon
Hi: 59° Lo: 34°
Feels Like: 38°
Frankfort
Clear
45° wxIcon
Hi: 58° Lo: 33°
Feels Like: 40°
Frankfort
Partly Cloudy
45° wxIcon
Hi: 57° Lo: 33°
Feels Like: 40°
Monticello
Clear
42° wxIcon
Hi: 59° Lo: 34°
Feels Like: 38°
Monticello
Clear
42° wxIcon
Hi: 60° Lo: 33°
Feels Like: 38°
Logansport
Clear
39° wxIcon
Hi: 58° Lo: 33°
Feels Like: 35°
Warmer, wetter, stormy pattern ahead.
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