Lows this morning ran 8-14. The 9 at Greater Lafayette was the coldest temperature of the winter so far beating the low of 11 on Christmas morning.
We will contiue to cloud up today with some areas of light snow & light freezing rain Sunday morning. This should taper by 1 p.m.
Just a few spits of rain &/or sleet are possible in the afternoon-evening with highs 33-37.
Areas of rain, snow, sleet & freezing rain will re-develop late Sunday & last into Sunday night before ending Monday morning.
Any snowfall accumulation looks very light. The highest totals of 0.5-0.8" will occur in the far northwest, otherwise it looks like just a localized coating/dusting.
Winds will be southeasterly at 5-15 mph Sunday-Sunday night.
A few hundreths of an inch of freezing rain are possible with trace amounts of sleet.
Any issues with slick spots would be Sunday morning & then Sunday night-Monday morning, but precipitation is light.
The heavier precipitation will arrive Monday morning with freezing rain, sleet & changeover to rain for part of the area by Monday midday-afternoon.
It appears that extensive icing may occur along & north of US 24 with up to 0.25" glaze possible. Icing amounts will be less with southward extent, but may still reach as high as 0.10" before changing to rain in the Lafayette area.
Winds will be strong Monday with east wind turning to the northeast at 15-30 mph increasing to 25-40 mph. Isolated gusts to 45 mph are possible Monday night.
Some isolated power outages & downed tree branches are possible, especially along & north of US 24.
Ice accumulations or accretions should run 0.05" to as much as 0.25" from south to north of the viewing area. Model shows 0.20-0.40", but that will not all accrete due to the wind & temperatures right around 31-32.
The ice & rain should change to some snow Monday night-Tuesday before ending.
After highs 32-38, temperatures will fall to 24-28 Monday night.
Strong northeast winds 20-40 mph will lead to blowing & drifting of snow that does fall.
The greatest amounts are setting up in our far north.
So, obviously, the bigger impacts with this event will be in the northern parts of the viewing area, but there will be impacts farther south too. The worst of the impacts would be Monday afternoon-evening to Tuesday morning.
It appears that areas south of IN 18 may see less than 1" of snow, but amounts will pick up with northward extent.
Up to 6" may fall in far northern Newton, Jasper & Pulaski counties. The southern parts of these counties may only see 1.5-2.5" showing the very sharp cut-off.
Tweaks are still possible to this forecast, so stay tuned. Any slight deviation in the track will result in changes this forecast.
My thoughts are that Newton & Jasper, Pulaski to Fulton counties may end up with a Winter Storm Watch soon. This would eventually be upgraded to a warning. A Winter Weather Advisory issuance is likely for all or nearly all ofthe rest of the area.
Snowfall with accumulation is possible Wednesday night-Thursday morning, but the exact track & amounts are uncertain. A band of heavy snow will likely reside with that system, but it is unclear exactly where it will set up.
After the snow, Friday night-Saturday morning looks like the coldest of the winter (though we may have a similar morning in mid-February after a major warm-up with near/record warmth in the February 3-10 time frame).